Post by sj on Nov 10, 2010 13:40:22 GMT -5
I needed to do this for comparing the results of our upcoming 2k11 upgrade conversion, then decided that it could make an interesting article about player predicted talent levels since it seems like only about half our owners understand just how high performance predictions have gotten.
Current talent breakdown.
Before you offer, or accept, that player as a star or superstar level performer, take a peek at what the ratings and predictions are for the upper 30% of the league.
2k10
1986 talent prediction and ratings distributions
This part shows only achieved overall ratings:
Overall 90+ = 245 (PT 9.5)
Overall 80-89 = 552 (PT 21.2)
Add 80-89 and 90+ to get PT 80+ of 30.7
This part shows both achieved and projected peak ratings:
Peak 90+ = 553 (PT = 21.3)
Peak 80 -89 = 902 (PT = 34.7)
Add 80-89 and 90+ to get PT 80+ of 56
The above translates into the following performance predictions. The second number in each row is the number of players who are predicted for the indicated performance level, which would be the first number in each row. The third number, in braces () is the average number of players at this level available per team, if they were evenly distributed.
BA
.300+ - 258 (9.92)
.310+ - 212 (8.15)
.320+ - 154 (5.92)
.330+ - 113 (4.35)
.340+ - 64 (2.46)
HR
10+ - 461 (17.73)
20+ - 212 (8.15)
30+ - 84 (3.23)
40+ - 31 (1.92)
50+ - 11 (0.42)
ERA
3.20 and below - 217 (8.34)
3.10 and below - 174 (6.7)
3.00 and below - 141 (5.42)
2.90 and below - 104 (4)
2.80 and below - 79 (3.04)
2.70 and below - 61 (2.35)
2.60 and below - 43 (1.65)
2.50 and below - 30 (1.15)
2.40 and below - 22 (0.85)
2k10
1987 projected performance predictions: (rough handling)
BA
.300+ - 275 (10.58)
.310+ - 226 (8.7)
.320+ - 169 (6.5)
.330+ - 121 (4.65)
.340+ - 68 (2.61)
HR
10+ - 483 (18.58)
20+ - 220 (8.46)
30+ - 89 (3.42)
40+ - 31 (1.92)
50+ - 9 (0.35)
ERA
3.20 and below - 242 (9.3)
3.10 and below - 201 (7.73)
3.00 and below - 161 (6.19)
2.90 and below - 126 (4.85)
2.80 and below - 93 (3.58)
2.70 and below - 69 (2.65)
2.60 and below - 52 (2)
2.50 and below - 38 (1.46)
2.40 and below - 26 (1)
Oh, sorry I forgot. The wry amusement part comes when comparing these numbers to talent ratings and performance predictions in a newly generated game file begun in the 1986 season.
In BA and ERA, the answer is 4.
Current talent breakdown.
Before you offer, or accept, that player as a star or superstar level performer, take a peek at what the ratings and predictions are for the upper 30% of the league.
2k10
1986 talent prediction and ratings distributions
This part shows only achieved overall ratings:
Overall 90+ = 245 (PT 9.5)
Overall 80-89 = 552 (PT 21.2)
Add 80-89 and 90+ to get PT 80+ of 30.7
This part shows both achieved and projected peak ratings:
Peak 90+ = 553 (PT = 21.3)
Peak 80 -89 = 902 (PT = 34.7)
Add 80-89 and 90+ to get PT 80+ of 56
The above translates into the following performance predictions. The second number in each row is the number of players who are predicted for the indicated performance level, which would be the first number in each row. The third number, in braces () is the average number of players at this level available per team, if they were evenly distributed.
BA
.300+ - 258 (9.92)
.310+ - 212 (8.15)
.320+ - 154 (5.92)
.330+ - 113 (4.35)
.340+ - 64 (2.46)
HR
10+ - 461 (17.73)
20+ - 212 (8.15)
30+ - 84 (3.23)
40+ - 31 (1.92)
50+ - 11 (0.42)
ERA
3.20 and below - 217 (8.34)
3.10 and below - 174 (6.7)
3.00 and below - 141 (5.42)
2.90 and below - 104 (4)
2.80 and below - 79 (3.04)
2.70 and below - 61 (2.35)
2.60 and below - 43 (1.65)
2.50 and below - 30 (1.15)
2.40 and below - 22 (0.85)
2k10
1987 projected performance predictions: (rough handling)
BA
.300+ - 275 (10.58)
.310+ - 226 (8.7)
.320+ - 169 (6.5)
.330+ - 121 (4.65)
.340+ - 68 (2.61)
HR
10+ - 483 (18.58)
20+ - 220 (8.46)
30+ - 89 (3.42)
40+ - 31 (1.92)
50+ - 9 (0.35)
ERA
3.20 and below - 242 (9.3)
3.10 and below - 201 (7.73)
3.00 and below - 161 (6.19)
2.90 and below - 126 (4.85)
2.80 and below - 93 (3.58)
2.70 and below - 69 (2.65)
2.60 and below - 52 (2)
2.50 and below - 38 (1.46)
2.40 and below - 26 (1)
Oh, sorry I forgot. The wry amusement part comes when comparing these numbers to talent ratings and performance predictions in a newly generated game file begun in the 1986 season.
In BA and ERA, the answer is 4.