Post by Exposgm on Nov 26, 2008 17:09:09 GMT -5
We have run a series of tests in order to study arbitration more in detail. The things we found out were quite interesting and allowed us to make a decision concerning arbitration in TMBL.
Based on the results of the tests that we have been running, we have no choice but to ignore arbitration as an option. This is not something I decided simply for the purpose of not having to come up with rules for arbitration. I have spent a lot of time looking at this, testing it in different ways, and it’s the conclusion that I had to come up to.
We started by testing the results when making various offers to the same players at turnover of 1976. Oddly enough, there are no variations such as the one we experience when signing players to regular contracts. For instance, if a team wins an arbitration case by offering 900k but loses it by offering 950k, this is something that happens every single time the game is being reloaded. The type of variation that we encounter when we make offers to a player when signing a regular contract does not occur during arbitration. This means that, if we were to go with arbitration cases anyway, teams would win all the time.
But that’s not the worst part.
Players that become eligible for arbitration in any given year, like 1976 in this case, are also eligible for regular negotiations as soon as they reach their third year of Major League service. At the end of the World Series, all players that were eligible for arbitration in the file I was testing were also eligible for a normal negotiation. So we checked to see what would come out of these regular negotiations.
This is where arbitration totally becomes useless in TMBL.
ALL the players agreed to sign for contracts MUCH cheaper with a normal negotiation than what THEY were asking for in arbitration. Worst: we were able to sign them to a lot less money than what they would get when the team would win the arbitration case. We also tested different number of years on the contract length: we signed them all to cheaper contracts no matter the number of years between one (same as arbitration length) and seven.
This happened with all sorts of players, whether they were crappy players rated 53, ordinary players that wouldn’t be starters on all teams or excellent players that were highly rated and had performed extremely well. It just does that all the time.
No smart team is going to want to use arbitration to sign a player for one year at a given salary when it can sign him to a cheaper and most probably longer contract before reaching the turnover point. This fact alone makes the whole arbitration issue completely worthless.
Therefore, we will keep working the same way that we have always done. When your players become eligible for arbitration, you will be able to negotiate with them using our regular, re-signing rules. You can do that at any time between the moment the player becomes eligible for negotiation and the re-signing deadline.
To see if you would have players eligible, go into Sortable Stats (or Ctrl-R). Click on Years. All players marked “1” are the ones whose contract runs out in the current season. You then have those with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 years left to their contracts. Beneath all of those, you will see the ones marked “Arb’76”, “Arb’77” and so on.
At this moment, there is no player eligible for “Arb’75”. The first players eligible for arbitration negotiation will come up in the 1976 season. These players will not appear under the “1” (year left) category.
Once a player is up for “Arb ‘xx(current season)”, he immediately becomes eligible for negotiation. Click on the player to see his Player Page: you will notice that “Negotiate” no longer appears in grey. By clicking on Negotiate, the Contract Negotiation window box appears and you can sign him to a regular contract. But remember: you will find no such player until next year.
If you wish to check it out, advance a file to the end of the 1976 World Series. Click on the Chicago White Sox and go to Sortable Stats (I use them in my example because they will have 3 players eligible then). “Arb’76” is what you will look for, and C Jamie Quirk, RP Terry Forster and SP Rick Mahler are all marked this way. Click on them to see the “Negotiate” button that is black instead of grey. In comparison, SS U.L. Washington (“Arb’77”) has his “Negotiate” option still gray; he will be eligible later.
This is important stuff because from now on, we will have more and more of these players come up and become eligible each year. This is where you’re going to have to search for them on your team, and check out the time they become eligible for a contract negotiation. You will have to sign these players same as the others whose contracts run out at the end of a season. When the time comes for the annual re-signing deadline, starting in 1976, you will have to post (re-signing or releases) instructions for both the walk-year players and the “Arbxx” (current season at that point) appearing on your roster.
Based on the results of the tests that we have been running, we have no choice but to ignore arbitration as an option. This is not something I decided simply for the purpose of not having to come up with rules for arbitration. I have spent a lot of time looking at this, testing it in different ways, and it’s the conclusion that I had to come up to.
We started by testing the results when making various offers to the same players at turnover of 1976. Oddly enough, there are no variations such as the one we experience when signing players to regular contracts. For instance, if a team wins an arbitration case by offering 900k but loses it by offering 950k, this is something that happens every single time the game is being reloaded. The type of variation that we encounter when we make offers to a player when signing a regular contract does not occur during arbitration. This means that, if we were to go with arbitration cases anyway, teams would win all the time.
But that’s not the worst part.
Players that become eligible for arbitration in any given year, like 1976 in this case, are also eligible for regular negotiations as soon as they reach their third year of Major League service. At the end of the World Series, all players that were eligible for arbitration in the file I was testing were also eligible for a normal negotiation. So we checked to see what would come out of these regular negotiations.
This is where arbitration totally becomes useless in TMBL.
ALL the players agreed to sign for contracts MUCH cheaper with a normal negotiation than what THEY were asking for in arbitration. Worst: we were able to sign them to a lot less money than what they would get when the team would win the arbitration case. We also tested different number of years on the contract length: we signed them all to cheaper contracts no matter the number of years between one (same as arbitration length) and seven.
This happened with all sorts of players, whether they were crappy players rated 53, ordinary players that wouldn’t be starters on all teams or excellent players that were highly rated and had performed extremely well. It just does that all the time.
No smart team is going to want to use arbitration to sign a player for one year at a given salary when it can sign him to a cheaper and most probably longer contract before reaching the turnover point. This fact alone makes the whole arbitration issue completely worthless.
Therefore, we will keep working the same way that we have always done. When your players become eligible for arbitration, you will be able to negotiate with them using our regular, re-signing rules. You can do that at any time between the moment the player becomes eligible for negotiation and the re-signing deadline.
To see if you would have players eligible, go into Sortable Stats (or Ctrl-R). Click on Years. All players marked “1” are the ones whose contract runs out in the current season. You then have those with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 years left to their contracts. Beneath all of those, you will see the ones marked “Arb’76”, “Arb’77” and so on.
At this moment, there is no player eligible for “Arb’75”. The first players eligible for arbitration negotiation will come up in the 1976 season. These players will not appear under the “1” (year left) category.
Once a player is up for “Arb ‘xx(current season)”, he immediately becomes eligible for negotiation. Click on the player to see his Player Page: you will notice that “Negotiate” no longer appears in grey. By clicking on Negotiate, the Contract Negotiation window box appears and you can sign him to a regular contract. But remember: you will find no such player until next year.
If you wish to check it out, advance a file to the end of the 1976 World Series. Click on the Chicago White Sox and go to Sortable Stats (I use them in my example because they will have 3 players eligible then). “Arb’76” is what you will look for, and C Jamie Quirk, RP Terry Forster and SP Rick Mahler are all marked this way. Click on them to see the “Negotiate” button that is black instead of grey. In comparison, SS U.L. Washington (“Arb’77”) has his “Negotiate” option still gray; he will be eligible later.
This is important stuff because from now on, we will have more and more of these players come up and become eligible each year. This is where you’re going to have to search for them on your team, and check out the time they become eligible for a contract negotiation. You will have to sign these players same as the others whose contracts run out at the end of a season. When the time comes for the annual re-signing deadline, starting in 1976, you will have to post (re-signing or releases) instructions for both the walk-year players and the “Arbxx” (current season at that point) appearing on your roster.