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Post by Exposgm on Sept 17, 2010 15:31:12 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for April 15, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 44% New York: 0% Detroit: 8% Toronto: 48%
Last season’s World Series finalist, the Blue Jays are off to a pretty bad start. After a month, they sit in last place in the AL East, some 8.5 games back of the Boston Red Sox. This doesn’t really reflect in the predictions for the moment, as Toronto leads the pack with almost a 1 in 2 shot at the division. Still, with the game’s projection of the Jays final record showing at 80-82 tied with the Yankees, there may be reasons to be worried. Boston is off to a nice start and the team has won its last six games, helping them to an early 2.5 game lead over the Tigers. Detroit could play a role in the race once again, but Mike Griffin, who won 18 games for them last year, is out for three months. New York and Baltimore aren’t expected to do much and should once again occupy the last two places in the division, unless Toronto isn’t recover from their tough start.
AL Central: Chicago: 14% Cleveland: 6% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 11% Minnesota: 69%
Four teams have a decent shot at the division here and it will probably remain as such until late in the season. Of the bunch, the Twins are the early favorites but I wouldn’t bet against the White Sox in 1985. With 5 straight wins, the Indians have grabbed an early 1.5 game lead over Minnesota. The big question is Cleveland concerns the rotation: their season may entirely rest on the shoulders of their starting pitchers. The Twins lost 1B Cecil Cooper for a couple of weeks, but they’re never out of resources so that injury shouldn’t bother them too much. The coming month may be tough for the White Sox who will be without CF Andy Van Slyke for five weeks. As for the Brewers, they’re on a six game losing streak that pushed them back 4 games behind the leaders, but the season is still young. Leon Durham (.190) and George Brett (.174) need to wake up soon if the Brewers don’t want to be left out. At this point, it looks like the Wildcard will come from this division, but we all know this can change quickly.
AL West: California: 3% Texas: 1% Seattle: 96% Oakland: 0%
The Mariners are the only team in the AL West with a winning record. Although the Angels and even the Rangers are predicted to have a slim chance for the division, early sims seem to indicate that the Mariners may very well end up running away with the division. They did lose fifth starter Vida Blue for two weeks. The Rangers are 3.5 games back and the Angels 4 games away from the Mariners. Both team needs to play better if they want to improve their chances at the playoffs. California lost DH Darryl Strawberry for three weeks. The Angels bullpen is terrible as only one of their relievers has an ERA below five. The Athletics should once again have a tough season while they slowly continue their rebuilding process.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 63% St. Louis: 37%
The NL East race will once again involve the Phillies and Cardinals. Philadelphia has a 1.5 game lead and hold an early advantage in the predictions. St. Louis could repeat as Wildcard winner: they currently lead in that area by a slim margin over the San Fransisco Giants in the predictions. The Mets and Expos will battle it out for third place. The Expos traded long-time fan favorite 3B Bill Madlock, but will welcome back RF Jeff Burroughs. The Mets have some pitchers struggling early on, none as much as Mike Maddux who’s 0-5 with a 7.68 ERA after six starts.
NL Central: Atlanta: 23% Chicago: 7% Cincinnati: 4% Pittsburgh: 66%
Could this be the end of the NL Central domination? All four teams have at least a 4% shot at the division, but in the wildcard department, they combine for a 3% chance between them. The Reds have an early 3 game lead, but will be without starter Steve Comer for two months thanks to a broken elbow. Cincinnati also has the smallest shot at the division according to the predictions and could very well finish last or at least miss the playoffs for the first time since... 1969! The Pirates are being favored by the sim tool, with a 2 in 3 chance at the division, but it is Chicago that the game sees with the best projected record at 86-76. The Braves have the best pitching staff of the bunch but the offense is somewhat struggling and they currently sit in last place some 5 games back. However, once Steve Buechele and Jeffrey Leonard get started, expect the Braves to get back in the thick of things. This division won’t be won before the very end.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 80% San Diego: 3% San Francisco: 17%
Everyone but the Astros is enjoying a great start and after a month, despite playing well, the Dodgers find themselves in third place, 3.5 games back of the Giants. This time, it won’t be an easy walk to the playoffs for the Dodgers. The sim tool gives them a huge 80% shot at the division, but don’t count the Giants out so fast. The acquisition of Dennis Eckersley (5-1, 2.70) may very well put them back into the postseason. The Padres also have chances at both the division and the wildcard, although not as favorite right now. The only team that really stands no shot at even a winning record are the Astros. As if they needed more bad news, their rotation is decimated. Another long season in Houston in perspective, the Astros should once again be the NL’s worst team and by quite a margin.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Chicago: 27% Milwaukee: 20% Cleveland: 16% Minnesota: 11% California: 9% Boston: 7% Toronto: 5% Detroit: 3% Seattle: 2%
NL: St. Louis: 32% San Fransisco: 28% Philadelphia: 17% Los Angeles: 11% San Diego: 9% Cincinnati: 2% Atlanta: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Los Angeles-26 Seattle-19 Philadelphia-12 St.Louis-11 Minnestota-9 Toronto-6 Pittsburgh-5 San Fransico-4 Chicago(AL)-3 Atlanta-2 Boston-1 California-1 Milwaukee-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)--28% NL MVP: Dale Murphy (PHI)--34%
Dale Murphy is again the favorite to win the NL MVP but Chili Davis isn’t far behind. The race for the MVP in the AL should once again take place between Henderson and Eddie Murray.
AL Cy Young: Greg Harris (MIL)--17% NL Cy Young: Mike Morgan (LAD)—36%
It is a close call already in the AL, where Jeff Heathcock, Tom Candiotti and Dave Johnson are within 3 points of Greg Harris. Three Dodgers pitchers occupy the first three spots: Morgan, Steve Bedrosian and Joe Price total 69% of the Cy Young wins in the entire predictions.
AL ROY: Carmelo Martinez (DET)--47% NL ROY: Rex Hudler (CIN)-48%
Carmelo Martinez faces early opposition by Darryl Motley for the AL ROY. In the NL, Rex Hudler appears as favorite although he’s on the bench, and runner-up Jim Adduci is in the minors. Expect the situation in the NL to completely change as the season advances.
Notable fact: Tom Candiotti showing 7 no-hitters through 100 sims, that has to be the highest total I’ve seen in that category.
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Sept 17, 2010 16:19:34 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for April 15, 1985. AL Central: Chicago: 14% Chances at the WildCard: AL: Chicago: 27% Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season. Notable fact: Tom Candiotti showing 7 no-hitters through 100 sims, that has to be the highest total I’ve seen in that category. These chances diminished greatly (40ish %) with Van Slyke going down. its very unfortunate and I am saddended by the bad luck. Candiotti is a straight beasttttttt and the best part? hes cheap
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Post by sj on Sept 18, 2010 12:14:45 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for April 15, 1985. NL ROY: Rex Hudler (CIN)-48% The interesting thing about this prediction, which I also get in my own tests, is that the Reds have had Hundler on the bench all month. Gotta love the BBM AI.
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Post by Scott on Sept 18, 2010 13:30:09 GMT -5
Yeah, typically the AI will make its own lineup. Doesn't pay any attention to the lineup made by the real manager.
That is why some of these predictions change so much throughout the year. The closer to the end, the less likely the AI is to create its own lineup.
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Post by Exposgm on Sept 20, 2010 20:39:22 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for May 15, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 36% New York: 0% Detroit: 7% Toronto: 57%
The Blue Jays are finally out of the cellar after winning 12 of their last 20 games, but remain 7 games out at this point. Still, they’re the only team to have gained points here in the predictions. The Red Sox also won 12 in 20 and remain ahead of the division with a 2 game lead over the Detroit Tigers. Boston lost its setup man Larry Monroe to a wrist fracture for the next two weeks. The return of RF Dave Winfield to Detroit hasn’t been successful, and the .153 hitting Winfield lost the starting job to rookie Ivan Calderon. The sim tool is giving a small if not tiny chance to the Yankees of winning the Wildcard, but the Bronx Bombers will more likely finish in fourth place. Baltimore lies at the bottom of the AL East, some 9 games back and may finish in last place for the third time in four years.
AL Central: Chicago: 20% Cleveland: 12% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 10% Minnesota: 58%
The Indians are playing so well early on that they have the American League’s best record at 27-14. This reflected in the predictions with the Tribe doubling its chances at the division. This is good for a 2.5 game lead over the Twins, a 4.5 game lead on the Brewers and 5 games up on the White Sox. The Twins lost some points in the predictions but they still have more than half the chances at winning the Central at this point. However, setup wiz Scott Munninghoff will miss the next three weeks with a finger injury. Injuries have also hit the Brewers pitching staff: starter Rob Dressler and closer Tom Niedenfuer will both miss time, and Niedenfuer won’t be back for another 2-3 weeks. Despite the injury suffered by CF Andy Van Slyke, the White Sox have improved their chances at the division according to the sim tool. Chicago remains in the lead for the Wildcard as far as the predictions are concerned. Kansas City lost 15 of its last 20 games and is already 14 games back of the leaders. The Royals are with the Astros the only TMBL teams predicted with a 100% chance of finishing last.
AL West: California: 7% Texas: 0% Seattle: 93% Oakland: 0%
The Angels have improved a bit on their chances at the division as they sit 4.5 games back of the Mariners. But injuries to Darryl Strawberry and especially 3B Gary Gaetti won’t help their cause. The Mariners just traded CF Willie Wilson and now lost starter Devon White for two weeks. The Rangers thin hopes have disappeared as the team lost 13 games over its last 20. As for the A’s, their first two starters are out with injuries. Not that it should change anything, as their combined record is 0-10 and 7.52 ERA.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 74% St. Louis: 26%
Only the Phillies are playing well lately which has helped them improve their chances in the predictions. But St. Louis is only 3.5 games back and well within range of first place. However, the Cardinals have taken a big dive for the wildcard in the predictions. An injury to 1B Charlie Beamon will keep him out of the lineup for 3 weeks, but the way he was playing, the team may just well be better off with Hank Small. The sky has fallen on the Expos head, losers of their last 6 games and 14 of their last 20 games. Montreal now sits in last place of the division. The simulator still says that they’re likely to finish third, but last place could also be a possibility. Montreal finished last only once since their arrival in the league and that was back in 1970.
NL Central: Atlanta: 10% Chicago: 9% Cincinnati: 7% Pittsburgh: 74%
Another team that isn’t accustomed to last place is the Atlanta Braves, off to their worst start in a long time. They’re still only 5.5 games back as no one else has taken control of the division yet. Anyone could take the division, but the other teams stand little chance to grab the wildcard berth if things remain the same. The Reds are being hit by injuries but still haven’t removed Steve Comer from the rotation, which gave 2 starts to reliever Chris Green, not really fit for the rotation. Unsurprisingly, Green has lost both contests. It’s still very early so a lot of things can still happen, and you can bet they will happen.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 78% San Diego: 6% San Francisco: 16%
Only 2.5 games separate first from third place as the top 3 teams in the NL West continue to play extremely well. The Giants have the lead and are doing with the best pitching staff in the league. Dodgers pitchers aren’t bad either, and their offense is much improved from a few seasons ago, but LA lost 2B Tony Bernazard to a knee injury and reliever Rob Murphy to a sprained neck. Both players will miss the next two weeks. San Diego continues to play well with 5 straight wins. The Padres will have to do without SS Chris Speier for the next two weeks, as well as their best starter Tim Leary. The next few weeks may determine if the Padres will keep up with its rivals or not.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Chicago: 23% Minnesota: 22% Milwaukee: 20% Cleveland: 12% California: 8% Boston: 5% Toronto: 3% Detroit: 3% New York: 2% Seattle: 2%
NL: San Fransisco: 45% St. Louis: 19% Los Angeles: 16% Philadelphia: 9% San Diego: 7% Cincinnati: 1% Atlanta: 1% Chicago: 1% Pittsburgh: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Los Angeles-30 Seattle-18 Philadelphia-15 Minnestota-8 Pittsburgh-6 Chicago(AL)-5 Toronto-4 San Fransisco-4 Milwaukee-3 Cleveland-2 Boston-1 California-1 Chicago(NL)-1 Cincinnati-1 San Diego-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Willie Aikens (BOS)--25% NL MVP: Dwayne Murphy (STL)--52%
Red Sox 1B has found its 1981 form, a season in which he had been named MVP. His teammate Kirk Gibson is right behind and both Boston players have almost half the chances to win the award in the AL. Dwayne Murphy has taken Dale Murphy’s spot in first place as Dale dove to a very distant third place while he continues to struggle early on. Chili Davis is the only other NL player in the double-digits so far.
AL Cy Young: Dave Johnson (SEA)--25% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—26%
Mariners pitcher Dave Johnson has taken the lead and has more than twice the chances his pursuers have. The Dodgers aces continue to dominate in the NL, where they combine for 62% of the chances to win the Cy Young award.
AL ROY: Carmelo Martinez (DET)--40% NL ROY: Rex Hudler (CIN)-47%
Carmelo Martinez remains the early favorite to win the AL’s ROY while bench 2B Rex Hudler continues to lead in the NL. Expos C Don Crow is making a push for it as he launches himself in second place with his sparkling .258 average, his awesome 1 homerun and 12 key RBI.
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Post by sj on Sept 21, 2010 10:33:59 GMT -5
However, the Cardinals have taken a big dive for the wildcard in the predictions. I could see this coming, although last sim managed to be worse than I'd expected. At this point I can't even be sure of having a .500 season, and may throw in the towel and start getting things ready for 1986.
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Post by Exposgm on Sept 24, 2010 10:11:50 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for May 30, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 36% New York: 1% Detroit: 17% Toronto: 46%
Hottest team in the AL East with 14 wins over the last 20 games, the Yankees have climbed within 3.5 games of the leaders and made their entry in the predictions with a tiny shot at the division. Toronto is also playing well, winning 12 in 20, but the Blue Jays lost 11 points in the predictions, ten of which were recuperated by the Detroit Tigers. Detroit lost its last 3 games as well as CF Chet Lemon and SP Frank DiPino to minor injuries, but the team is only 2 games back of the Red Sox and has more than doubled its chances at the division. Boston’s chances remain the same than two weeks ago but look back on three teams within only six games of them. Only Baltimore isn’t likely to play a role in the race and should lose close to 100 games.
AL Central: Chicago: 17% Cleveland: 5% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 30% Minnesota: 48%
Some things change really fast in the AL Central. Nobody is playing really well lately, but the predictions now show that the Brewers have tripled their chances at the division over the last two weeks. Milwaukee sits only 2 games back of the Indians. The injury to Andy Van Slyke is starting to hurt the White Sox who dropped to 6 games back as well as by a few points here in the predictions, but that was not as bad as the drop the Indians and Twins took. Like the East division, only six games separate first from last place.
AL West: California: 4% Texas: 0% Seattle: 96% Oakland: 0%
The Angels have played extremely well lately, winning their last 6 games and 14 of their last 20, but have been unable to close the gap with the Mariners, winners of their last 7 and 16 over their last 20 contests. Seattle improved its shot at the division and is the team with the most chances at its division in TMBL. But the Angels recent play has given them the lead in the wildcard as far as the predictions go. As for the Rangers and Athletics, they continue to dive and are now respectively 16.5 and 20.5 games out.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 85% St. Louis: 15%
Hottest team in the NL with 14 wins over their last 20 games, the Phillies continued to improve their chances at the division, picking up 11 points over the last two weeks. The Cardinals are 6 games back and being slowed down a bit by injuries, notably to 3B Manny Castillo and SP Andy McGaffigan. Nevertheless, the team increased its chances at the wildcard by a solid 12 points. The Mets will be without SS Barry Larkin and 3B Mike Pagliarulo for a two week period. The Expos close the division but are within half a game of third place. Even though the sim tool places the Cards in second place 83% of the time, the game’s projected won-loss record show that the Mets should finish in second place with one more win than St. Louis.
NL Central: Atlanta: 23% Chicago: 20% Cincinnati: 12% Pittsburgh: 45%
There were huge changes in the predictions for the NL East as three teams improved their chances while the Pirates took quite a dive. The Cubs and Braves both greatly improved their chances but will need to win the division in order to make the playoffs. The Reds are still leading the division and by 3 games over second place, but injuries to the pitching staff are catching up with them. Pittsburgh still has the best shot at first place, but the team will need RF Sixto Lezcano to shake up his .199 batting average through two months. Chicago will be without 1B Ken Oberkfell for three weeks, but their bench resources aren’t weak and Oberkfell’s absence should go unnoticed. Like everyone else in the division, the Braves haven’t been playing well lately and sit in last place, six games back of the Reds.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 81% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 19%
The Padres lost all their points for the division, but remain within range of the wildcard spot. The Giants and Dodgers are both playing well and San Fransisco has kept its lead over LA by 3 games. The Giants chances at the wildcard remain the same while they slightly increased their shot at the division. The top two teams in the NL West could win more than 90 games, and at this point it looks like it could be the only such division in TMBL where that would happen this season.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: California: 24% Minnesota: 20% Chicago: 18% Milwaukee: 16% Cleveland: 10% Boston: 7% Toronto: 3% Detroit: 1% New York: 1%
NL: San Fransisco: 45% St. Louis: 31% Los Angeles: 9% Philadelphia: 7% San Diego: 6% Pittsburgh: 2%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Los Angeles-23 Seattle-22 Philadelphia-16 Minnestota-8 San Fransisco-8 Milwaukee-4 California-4 St. Louis-3 Toronto-3 Atlanta-2 Pittsburgh-2 Chicago(AL)-1 Cleveland-1 Boston-1 San Diego-1
** One World Series lost again, it should re-appear at some point...
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)--32% NL MVP: Dwayne Murphy (STL)--51%
Mariners 1B Eddie Murray has taken the lead back from Kirk Gibson even though he has 8 less homeruns and 20 less RBI than his teammate Andres Mora. The NL’s predictions for the MVP barely moved.
AL Cy Young: Dave Johnson (SEA)--26% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—33%
The same two pitchers keep the lead in both leagues. Five pitchers now have at least a 14% shot at the award in the AL, while the top three remains consisted of Dodgers aces.
AL ROY: Darryl Motley (BAL)--47% NL ROY: Rex Hudler (CIN)-53%
Unimpressive so far, Darryl Motley and Carmelo Martinez continue to be the two favorites for the AL ROY, with Motley taking over the lead. Hudler the bench player continues to lead in the NL, but B.J. Surhoff makes his first apparition with a decent 20% shot already.
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Post by Exposgm on Oct 4, 2010 1:14:32 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for June 15, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 34% New York: 2% Detroit: 4% Toronto: 60%
Unable to shake things up, the Tigers have lost 13 of their last 20 games, falling to fourth place some five games behind the leaders. That reflects in the predictions with Detroit losing 13 points for the division, the hardest drop in the division. The Yankees have taken over second place and are only within 3.5 games of the Red Sox. Boston has won five in a row and is projected to win 7 more games than anyone else in the AL East. But it is the Toronto Blue Jays that the sim tool sees finishing in first place. The Jays have turned on the engines and have won 14 of their last 20 contests, best in the AL. They climbed to third place and are only 4 games back, but they now lead the predictions with a 3 in 5 shot at the division. The Orioles will finish last and by some margin if the Yankees keep up their good play this season.
AL Central: Chicago: 40% Cleveland: 18% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 22% Minnesota: 20%
Last time, we said that things changed really fast in the AL Central. Those weren’t wasted words. Everyone has been playing well lately but the Twins, and this is showing quite well in the predictions. The Chicago White Sox have jumped ahead in the predictions by gaining an impressive 23 points and now lead the pack with a 2 in 5 shot even though they’re currently third, 5.5 games back from the lead. The Indians also improved their chances and they remain in the lead at this point, 4.5 games up on the Brewers who will be without SP Dave Stewart for another week. Minnesota took a dive this sim and need help from the bottom of the order and the bench. The Twins also lost SP LaMarr Hoyt to a broken finger for three weeks. The Royals have also been hurt by injuries, as RF Reggie Jackson, 2B Mike Grace and starters Curt Schilling and Gary Serum went down, but they’re not quite ready to catch up with fourth place yet.
AL West: California: 4% Texas: 0% Seattle: 96% Oakland: 0%
Nothing move here, as the predictions remained exactly the same, at least as far as the AL West in concerned. Seattle and California both won 13 of their last 20 games and the Mariners remain on top by a full 7 games. The Angels remain in the lead for the wildcard chances according to the sim tool, but things are getting closer and closer with five teams owning chances between 14 and 19%. The Rangers and Athletics close the division and aren’t playing well this season as expected.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 92% St. Louis: 8%
As announced, the Mets have unleashed their fury and won 8 of their last 10 games. They’re now within 4 of the St. Louis Cardinals, but according to the simulator, they’re not quite in range for either the division or the wildcard yet. The only change in the predictions for the NL East is the fact that the Phillies seem to almost have locked it up. They lead the Cardinals by 7 games, and the injury to Cards 1B Hank Small is not going to help. St. Louis also lost points for the Wildcard. As for the Expos, there’s not much good coming out of their season. Even Jeff Burroughs seems to have lost interest, batting .025 (1 for 40!) over his last 10 games.
NL Central: Atlanta: 19% Chicago: 13% Cincinnati: 32% Pittsburgh: 36%
Much like the AL Central, there was a lot of changes in the predictions over a single sim. No one has been playing really well lately, so the Reds remain on top by 4.5 games on the Cubs, but Cincinnati has picked up 20 points in the predictions to close the gap on the Pirates. Pittsburgh still leads according to the sim tool, but according to the reality tool, they’ve fallen in last place, 6.5 games out of first. The Pirates will need to play without 1B Sid Bream and RF Joe Orsulak for the next week or two. Injuries are also hitting the Braves who remain projected at 80-82. Last time the Braves had a losing season, they were in Milwaukee, Kennedy was President and walking on the moon seemed only a distant dream. That was in 1961.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 23% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 77%
There is really only one team who’s playing really well over their last 20 games in the NL, and it’s the San Fransisco Giants. So much, in fact, that over the span of only one sim they have completely overturned the situation here in the predictions. Their 58 point gain now has them as large favorite to take the division. They lead the Dodgers by six games, but they lost starter Larry Landreth for a month. It’s not as if the Dodgers had lost control by playing badly. They’re also playing rather well and have the NL’s third best record. It wouldn’t hurt if outfielders Claudell Washington and Randy Bush increased their production, though. Naturally, the Dodgers have taken the lead for the Wildcard, so it still looks like 2 teams for the NL West will play October ball. The Padres are back at .500 and seem to be out of this year’s race for good. They’re still way ahead of the Astros who probably couldn’t win against their minor league team if they faced it.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: California: 19% Minnesota: 19% Cleveland: 17% Chicago: 16% Milwaukee: 14% Boston: 6% Toronto: 6% Seattle: 2% Detroit: 1%
NL: Los Angeles: 62% San Fransisco: 21% St. Louis: 17%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-25 San Fransisco-24 Los Angeles-21 Toronto-9 Philadelphia-8 Chicago(AL)-5 Minnestota-2 Milwaukee-2 California-2 Cleveland-2
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)--40% NL MVP: Dwayne Murphy (STL)--34%
Mariners 1B Eddie Murray continues to lead and is the only AL player rated above 20% at this point. Dwayne Murphy is again in the lead for the award in the NL, but his lead has melted as Giants OF Chili Davis almost caught up to him.
AL Cy Young: Dave Johnson (SEA)--31% NL Cy Young: Dennis Eckersley (SF)—50%
The only NL pitcher who was with the leaders all year without playing for the Giants has now taken the lead. Giants offseason acquisition Dennis Eckersley now has more than twice the shot Steve Bedrosian has. Dave Johnson still leads in the AL, but watch for the emergence of White Sox ace Tom Candiotti who is right behind him at 28%.
AL ROY: Darryl Motley (BAL)--42% NL ROY: Rex Hudler (CIN)-46%
Motley and Carmelo Martinez continue to battle in the AL but both are batting in the .210s. “Wonder Dog” remains in the lead in the NL despite seeing little action, but four other players now have double-digit chances.
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Oct 4, 2010 9:45:48 GMT -5
woo
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Post by Paul - Jays GM on Oct 4, 2010 20:14:01 GMT -5
"But it is the Toronto Blue Jays that the sim tool sees finishing in first place."
to my surprise as well, I don't ever see these results when I sim out the rest of the season, the AI must be a better manager than I obviously am!
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Post by drew on Oct 4, 2010 20:38:16 GMT -5
WTH? Losing 58 points this late in the season????That has got to be a record turnaround for the month of June. I am going to quote an old Red Sox proverb.......... "Bucky F----ing Dent!"
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Post by Exposgm on Oct 7, 2010 16:55:26 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for June 30, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 61% New York: 2% Detroit: 4% Toronto: 33%
Only one thing changed in the AL East over the last two weeks, but the transformation is major. The Red Sox won 13 of their last 20 games while the Toronto Blue Jays lost 11 over the same period. That not only increased Boston’s lead over Toronto to a full 7 games, but the Red Sox also grabbed 27 points from the Jays in the predictions and are now looking at a 3 in 5 chance at winning their division. LF Kirk Gibson already has 25 homeruns as we close in on the half of the season. The Yankees and Tigers chances haven’t moved as NY remains within 2 games and Detroit within 4 games of the leaders. The Jays shouldn’t finish in fourth place, but they need to start playing better if they wish to remain alive for the playoffs race.
AL Central: Chicago: 46% Cleveland: 23% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 13% Minnesota: 18%
The Chicago White Sox have continued to play well, winning 13 of their last 20 games and moving within only 3.5 games of the leaders, tied with Milwaukee. They were, with the Indians, the only team in this division to increase their chances for the division. As it stands, the White Sox have exactly twice the chances of the Indians to win the division at the end of the season. Nevertheless, the Tribe is still leading the way and won’t go down easily if they do. Expect this to get decided at the very end. The Brewers got hit hard, losing 9 points in the predictions but are still in the division race as well as the wildcard race. The Twins lost a couple of points, but they’re only 5 games back and well within reach if they get hot at some point soon.
AL West: California: 2% Texas: 0% Seattle: 98% Oakland: 0%
With their lead a full 10 games up on the Angels, the Mariners have almost wrapped the division already. California lost some ground in the wildcard race which is currently led by the Brewers and White Sox, but only 2.5 games separate the first and the sixth team for that final playoff spot. Angels starter Don Robinson’s neck injury may be coming at a bad time. The A’s continue to suffer in last place. On June 24, they lost 7-3 to the Orioles in a game where O’s starter Greg Erardi struck out 17 A’s batters.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 99% St. Louis: 1%
The biggest lead over second place belongs to the Phillies in the NL East. Winners of 13 of their last 20 games, the Phils have increased their lead to 10.5 games over the Cardinals and have almost locked the division up in the predictions. Unexpected are the great contributions of some players, most notably 37 year old Oscar Gamble who’s leading the team in several offensive categories and rookie starter Fernando Valenzuela who is the team’s best pitcher so far this season. The Cardinals are not out of the wildcard race yet, but starter Bryan Clutterbuck has gone down for the next two weeks. The Mets aren’t far behind and could cause a surprise by finishing second, but should likely finish third unless the Expos remember how to win ball games.
NL Central: Atlanta: 31% Chicago: 20% Cincinnati: 27% Pittsburgh: 22%
The Braves have continued to play better than the rest of this division, and the team that was in last place not so long ago has now climbed to the second rank only 4.5 games back. That reflected in the predictions with Atlanta improving its chances at a divisional win by 12%, which makes them the new favorite according to the sim tool. But every team in the NL Central has at least a 20% shot at the division, so nothing is played yet. Chicago also improved its chances and is only 5 games back of the Reds. Cincinnati remains the only team in the division with a winning record, but the Reds did lose 5 points in the predictions as the pitching staff continues to struggle. The Pirates pitching is doing fine, but there are too many hitters struggling to help the team win regularly. Pittsburgh has fallen in last place, 8 games out, and that took 14 points out of their chances for the division.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 40% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 60%
The Dodgers won 13 of their last 20 games to take back 17 points from the Giants in the predictions. LA is now only 1.5 games back of the Giants. Already without SP Larry Landreth, the Giants staff then lost Scott Sanderson to a pulled groin. Both will be back within a week. Nevertheless, the Giants remain the favorite to win the division and most importantly both NL West teams have a combined 88% chance at grabbing the wildcard spot. The Padres record is still above .500 and that makes them the NL team closest from the wildcard leaders, but the gap is already solid at 7 games.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Minnesota: 26% California: 20% Chicago: 19% Milwaukee: 16% Cleveland: 12% Boston: 4% Seattle: 2% Toronto: 1%
NL: Los Angeles: 54% San Fransisco: 34% St. Louis: 11% Philadelphia: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-31 Los Angeles-19 Philadelphia-18 San Fransisco-17 Chicago(AL)-6 Minnestota-3 Milwaukee-1 Pittsburgh-1 Toronto-1
**: Now missing 3 World Series! Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)—51% NL MVP: Dwayne Murphy (STL)--35%
Eddie Murray increased its lead but Kirk Gibson of the Red Sox has now passed the 20% plateau. The race is tighter for second place in the NL between Chili Davis, Tim Wallach and George Bell, but none of them are really threatening Dwayne Murphy at the moment.
AL Cy Young: Tom Candiotti (CHW)--32% NL Cy Young: Dennis Eckersley (SF)—37 %
Candiotti now passed Dave Johnson to take the lead in the AL, but Johnson was also passed by Jeff Heathcock of the Twins. Only 5 points separate first from third. The race got much closer in the NL with Steve Bedrosian (34%) right behind Eckersley. Not a single pitcher from the NL East appears in the race.
AL ROY: Carmelo Martinez (DET)--38% NL ROY: John Leister (PIT)-28%
Martinez and Motley are no longer alone for the AL RoY with the recent emergence of Rangers DH Rafael Palmeiro at 23%. Oddly enough, Red Hudler appears at 1% in the AL despite playing for the Reds. The same Hudler has finally been surpassed by SP John Leister of the Pirates and Braves SP Brian Fisher should catch up real soon.
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Oct 7, 2010 17:27:40 GMT -5
hmm weird. I ran the 100 sim tool after I got the sim last night and my results (atleast for AL Central) were a lot different. The twins had the slight edge of the white sox for the division and no one else was close.
crazy to see the twins so far behind in your results when the rest of the times Ive done it it pretty much matched yours.
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Post by Exposgm on Oct 11, 2010 19:30:10 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for July 15, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 81% New York: 0% Detroit: 8% Toronto: 11%
Things have now gotten dramatic for the Blue Jays who are unable to play well lately and have suffered a 22 point loss here in the predictions. Toronto suffered 12 losses over its last 20 games and has dropped to 9.5 games The Yankees are playing well and keeping themselves within 3.5 games of the leaders, but according to the sim tool they have lost all hope of making it to the postseason. The team also lost fifth starter Roy Smith for two weeks. The Tigers doubled their chances for the division and are 7 games out of first at this point. Their ace Bob Welch will miss the next week with a wrist fracture, but Mike Griffin will rejoin the rotation after being out for the last 3 months. As for the Red Sox, they’re playing very well lately with 13 wins in their last 20 games and improved their chances at the division by 20%, so according to the simulator, they have a 4 in 5 shot at winning it in 1985.
AL Central: Chicago: 34% Cleveland: 11% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 11% Minnesota: 44%
The Indians have lost 11 of their last 20 games as the three teams behind them played well over that same period, allowing the gap to melt to a tiny 1.5 game lead between first and fourth place. Cleveland and Chicago have each lost 12 points in the predictions and the Brewers lost a couple of points. The red-hot Twins, winners of their last 5 games, were the only AL Central team to improve on their chances and they did it in fashion by gaining a big 26 points to take the lead here in the predictions. There’s a chance that only one of these teams will make it to the postseason.
AL West: California: 2% Texas: 0% Seattle: 98% Oakland: 0%
The hottest team in the AL, the Mariners, have won 15 of their last 20 games and improved their lead to 11.5 games on the Angels. California has regained a bit of momentum and has taken back the lead for the wildcard according to the predictions. The wildcard race remains extremely close with only 1 game separating the top 5 teams.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 98% St. Louis: 2%
With 12 wins over their last 20 games, the Cardinals have reduced the Phillies lead to 7.5 games. The game projection says that the Cardinals are on their way to a 80 win season while the sim tool projects them with 86 wins. The Mets are also playing well lately but 11.5 games out seems far at this point. Despite having an awful season, the Expos sent three pitchers to the All-Star game, including the game starter (John Pacella) and the one that was credited with the win (Tim Burke). Undoubtedly, that will be the highlight of the year for the team who dropped to some 19 games out.
NL Central: Atlanta: 29% Chicago: 32% Cincinnati: 25% Pittsburgh: 14%
The Atlanta Braves are red hot after winning 15 of their last 20 games to climb within 1.5 games of the Reds. Only 7 games separate first from last place, by far the closest division in TMBL. According to the predictions, only the Cubs improved on their chances for the division over the last sim, as they gained 12 points and suddenly find themselves as the favorite to take the NL Central. Atlanta and Cincinnati only lost a couple of points, but the Pirates continued to dive and have now only a 1 in 7 chance to take their division.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 28% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 72%
The Dodgers played better than the Giants over their last 20 games, but lost 12 points to San Francisco in the predictions. LA remains only 4 games back and holds a 4.5 game lead on the Cards for the wildcard. Should these two teams meet in the NLCS, it should make for a pretty interesting series.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: California: 24% Chicago: 20% Minnesota: 19% Milwaukee: 18% Cleveland: 17% Toronto: 2%
NL: Los Angeles: 63% San Francisco: 25% St. Louis: 9% Atlanta: 2% Chicago: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-30 San Francisco-27 Los Angeles-16 Philadelphia-9 Minnestota-7 Boston-5 Chicago(AL)-4 Cleveland-1
**Less one World Series for some obscure reasons...
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)—40% NL MVP: Dwayne Murphy (STL)--51%
Eddie Murray’s lead has melted a bit as his closest pursuer is no longer Kirk Gibson but Leon Durham from the Brewers. Dwayne Murphy increased its lead and saw his multiple opponents make way for a single one in Tim Wallach of the Cubs (22%).
AL Cy Young: Jeff Heathcock (MIN)--30% NL Cy Young: Dennis Eckersley (SF)—55 %
Jeff Heathcock of the Twins has jumped ahead in the AL, only one point in front of Dave Johnson. Tom Candiotti has slipped a bit while Frank Pastore is closing in on him. Giants ace Dennis Eckersley increased his lead by quite a bit. Only two other pitchers have chances in the double-digits.
AL ROY: Darryl Motley (BAL)--37% NL ROY: Rex Hudler (CIN)-37%
Motley has regained the lead in the AL, followed closely by Palmeiro (32%) and a distant Carmelo Martinez in third place. Hudler returns to take the lead in the NL, despite starting only 22 games so far.
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Post by Exposgm on Oct 14, 2010 0:00:33 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for July 30, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 94% New York: 0% Detroit: 4% Toronto: 2%
Boston’s .303 team batting average is largely compensating for the pitching staff being weaker than in past years. The Red Sox have won their last 3 games and increased their lead to a full 7 games on the New York Yankees. The team once again gained plenty of points here in the predictions, the only AL East franchise to do so this week. The Yankees lost 4 in a row but are still hanging on second place. They’re just ahead of the Detroit Tigers who lost half their points in the predictions despite 12 wins over their last 20 games. Too many Tigers hitters are struggling this year, which explains the disappointing season so far. The Blue Jays have again been hit hard in the predictions, losing 9 points and falling to 12 games out. They also lost pitcher Frank Viola to a broken foot. At this point, it would be really surprising if the Red Sox missed the playoffs, but stranger things have happened and two months are plenty of time for anything to happen again.
AL Central: Chicago: 45% Cleveland: 10% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 7% Minnesota: 38%
Two games are all that stand between first and fourth place in the AL Central. The top four teams have all been playing well lately, but only one of them increased its chances at winning the division and it’s the Chicago White Sox. Aces Tom Candiotti and Rick Langford are making a great job again this season, but it’s a little thin after those two safe for the bullpen which has done extremely well. The Indians remain in the lead by a tiny half a game, but they’ll be without DH Greg Walker (.265, 18 HR, 59 RBI) for the next three months. Milwaukee lost 4 points in the predictions but is still only one game back. The Twins lost the most points, six, among the pack and again lost the lead in the predictions to the White Sox. Things will probably stay close for the division and the wildcard until the very end.
AL West: California: 0% Texas: 0% Seattle: 100% Oakland: 0%
Seattle has caught fire and leads all of TMBL with its 70-35 record. The 15 game lead on the Angels now appears insurmountable and the Mariners have locked up the division according to the sim tool. The Angels still have a shot for the wildcard, but they have lost some huge ground recently after losing 7 of their last 10 games. Nothing much is happening in Texas or Oakland, except for Floyd Bannister’s broken hand. Judging by his 1-4 record and 8.69 ERA, one has to wonder if the hand wasn’t broken way before now.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 95% St. Louis: 5%
The Cardinals remain 7 games back of the Phillies and would need help from a few names in the rotation. So far, only Andy McGaffigan has been doing fine and this is clearly insufficient if the team wants to repeat its 1984 performance. Philadelphia lost its last 3 games as well as 3 points in the predictions, but it they avoid catastrophe they should win their division for the third straight year. There was one surprise in the NL East over the last two weeks, as the Expos now find themselves in third place. They have been the hottest team in the division over the last 20 games, but the timing was also perfect as it coincided with a 13 game losing streak by the Mets.
NL Central: Atlanta: 58% Chicago: 18% Cincinnati: 14% Pittsburgh: 10%
There was a major change of pace in the NL Central. The Braves not only took control of the lead by passing the Reds, but they also doubled their chances at the division, going from 29 to 58%. Atlanta lost its last 3 games, but Cincinnati hasn’t been playing well lately as the Big Red Machine dropped to second place, 1.5 games back of the new leaders. The Reds also lost the services of 1B Neil Fiala (knee) and 3B Pat Dodson (ankle) to injuries. The Cubs sit in third and suffered the biggest lost in the prediction with a 14 point drop. The Pirates played well lately and got back a bit in the race, only 4.5 games out, but they too lost some points in the predictions. Some teams will need to wake up if they don’t want the Braves to run away with the division from now on.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 19% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 81%
The Dodgers have won their last 7 games but still lost 9 points to the Giants in the predictions. That’s because the Giants have also been playing really well, winning 14 of their last 20 games. Only 3.5 game stand between these two teams. However, the Dodgers lost ace Joe Price to a fractured foot. One of the NL’s top pitchers will miss the next two weeks. We’ll see if that gives a break to the Giants. San Diego continued to drop in the standings, falling to 16 games back but they remain even more ahead than that of the lowly Astros.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Chicago: 27% Cleveland: 24% Minnesota: 22% Milwaukee: 18% California: 8% Toronto: 1%
NL: Los Angeles: 71% San Francisco: 18% St. Louis: 11%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-34 Philadelphia-15 Los Angeles-14 San Francisco-13 Minnestota-8 Boston-8 Chicago(AL)-2 St. Louis-2 Cleveland-1 Milwaukee-1 Atlanta-1
**Less one World Series, stolen or...?
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)—47% NL MVP: Dwayne Murphy (STL)--44%
Eddie Murray regained some mom and Tom, err, momentum in the AL, holding a 30 point lead over Willie Aikens and Kirk Gibson of the Red Sox. Tim Wallach continues to get closer in the NL, improving his chances to 28% as Cardinals OF Dwayne Murphy stayed in the lead once again.
AL Cy Young: Dave Johnson (SEA)--42% NL Cy Young: Dennis Eckersley (SF)—73%
Winless in three starts, Jeff Heathcock lost the lead and fell in fourth place, far behind the new AL leader in Dave Johnson who has almost twice as many chances as runner-up Tom Candiotti (23%). Giants ace Dennis Eckersley is leaving everyone far behind with an 18 point gain and could win the Cy Young in the National League after doing the same with the A’s in the AL.
AL ROY: Darryl Motley (BAL)--41% NL ROY: Rex Hudler (CIN)-40%
Despite batting .176 in his last ten games, Tigers LF Carmelo Martinez got a boost in the predictions, climbing to 34% to regain second place over Rafael Palmeiro. Backup 2B Rex Hudler continues to lead in the NL, followed closely by pitcher John Leister at 34%.
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Oct 14, 2010 0:34:00 GMT -5
I would really like to know how Rex Hudler whos been sitting on the bench all year could be the NL ROY? are there just no rookies in the NL or what?
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Post by sj on Oct 14, 2010 12:06:21 GMT -5
I would really like to know how Rex Hudler whos been sitting on the bench all year could be the NL ROY? are there just no rookies in the NL or what? Sure, we have some good rookies this year but, as Scott said, the AI has it's own way of doing things when you use the sim tool (or use the play multiple seasons option). It decides which players to use, and I'm around 90% sure that it also throws out the strategy settings, it probably even changes team pitching rotations since it always resets teams to 5 SPs at FA period.
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Oct 14, 2010 14:54:10 GMT -5
well with that wouldnt after every sim Hudler's % chance of winning would go down seeing as he has less time to produce in an AI lineup? Seems like his percent is staying relatively the same?
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Post by boobiegibson4three on Oct 14, 2010 16:15:36 GMT -5
if i owned hudler i would let him play for a sim or two...and just make sure the sim module doesnt know more then what we do lol.
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Post by Exposgm on Oct 17, 2010 22:31:46 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for August 15, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 99% New York: 0% Detroit: 1% Toronto: 0%
The red hot Red Sox have won 8 games in a row and 14 over their last 20 to increase their lead to 11 games over second place, almost definitely locking up the division in the predictions. After a slow start with his new team, Randy Johnson has picked up the pace, winning his last five decisions. The Yankees are still in second place even though the sim tool grants them only a 16% shot at finishing this high. RF Jesse Barfield is doing much better than during his somewhat disappointing rookie season and leads the team with 25 homeruns and 92 RBI. The Tigers have the slimmest of chances to take the division and sit in third place, 12 games from the lead. Detroit would have needed a better production from some veterans, especially infielders Tom Herr and Bill Madlock. The Blue Jays have won 12 of their last 20 games but have lost their remaining chances at the division. 1985 has got to be a disappointment for them, as is the performance of former first overall pick Roger Clemens who totals only 4 wins in 24 starts so far this season.
AL Central: Chicago: 22% Cleveland: 20% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 1% Minnesota: 57%
The Twins have won 13 of their last 20 games to climb to second place and are only half a game back of the Indians who also won 13 of their last 20 contests. Minnesota and Cleveland were the only teams in the division to improve in their chances at the division, the Indians doubling their chances to reach 20% and the Twins gaining some 19 points to pass above 50% with a month and a half left to the season. There will be plenty of firepower joining the Tribe soon, with the recent acquisitions of RF Ellis Valentine, 1B Greg Brock and RF Tony Armas, but nothing has been done to improve the weakest pitching staff of the top 4 teams in the division. Chicago is still in the thick of things for the division as well as for the wildcard, but the White Sox haven’t been playing well lately and fell behind a little as they’re now 3 games back of the leaders. This caused them to lose more than half their points in the predictions, but they’re still ahead of the Indians according to the sim tool. Things aren’t as good for the Brewers after losing 7 of their last ten games and getting pushed back to 5.5 games. Milwaukee’s combined chances for a playoff spot are now under 10%. The Royals have lost 7 straight games and 15 in 20 and will lose more than 100 for the fifth time in 7 years.
AL West: California: 0% Texas: 0% Seattle: 100% Oakland: 0%
The Mariners are slowly waiting for the season to end to begin their real season. In the meantime, they lost slugger Barry Bonds to an ankle injury but the 21 year old will be back next week. The Angels are only 5.5 games back of the wildcard spot, but suffered another loss in the rotation with Mike LaCoss out for almost three weeks. The Rangers have been playing well lately, but not the A’s who lost 16 of their last 20 games. Both teams have the lowest attendances in the American League this season.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 97% St. Louis: 3%
St. Louis has cut the Phillies lead to 5 games but has still lost two points in the predictions for the division and another 9 points for the wildcard. No one in the division has been playing well lately. The Mets regained third place from the Expos. The remaining of August favors the Phillies as they face weaker teams than the Cardinals will play, but should the red birds put on a winning streak, things could get a lot closer than they seem according to the sim tool.
NL Central: Atlanta: 65% Chicago: 5% Cincinnati: 1% Pittsburgh: 29%
It’s not often that every team in a division has occupied every position in the Standings over the course of a season (except in the early days, of course), but that has been the case in the NL Central. The Reds, who were leading it most of the year, have now fallen into last place with an untimely bad streak (15 losses over their last 20 games). They’re only 6.5 games back, but the 13 point loss they suffered in the predictions could really mean the end of their hopes for this season. The Cubs also lost 13 points in the predictions as they sit in third place, 5.5 games out. Atlanta continued to improve on their chances at the division, but the hottest team in the division lately have been the Pittsburgh Pirates who won 14 in 20 to get back in second place, only 3 games back of the Braves. That helped them increase their chances in the predictions by 19 points. That is still way back of the Braves, but there’s enough time for that to change. The upcoming weeks will be crucial for them.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 7% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 93%
Once again, the top two NL West teams have been playing well lately, making it impossible for the Dodgers to catch up a bit with the Giants. San Francisco should logically cruise to a division win with the Dodgers not far behind. LA has almost locked up the wildcard. This is very interesting as few people must have seen this one coming before the season. Both teams also figure in the top 3 World Series winners according to the sim tool. The Padres will try again next year as they showed promises early on. As for the Astros, there is still a lot of work to be done.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Cleveland: 32% Chicago: 26% Minnesota: 24% California: 11% Milwaukee: 7%
NL: Los Angeles: 91% San Francisco: 7% St. Louis: 2%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-34 San Francisco-23 Los Angeles-14 Philadelphia-7 Chicago(AL)-6 Minnestota-5 Cleveland-4 Boston-3 St. Louis-1 Atlanta-1 California-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Willie Aikens (BOS)—35% NL MVP: Dwayne Murphy (STL)--46%
In a single sim, Eddie Murray not only lost his 30 point lead, but also first place to Red Sox slugger Willie Aikens. Dwayne Murphy did not suffer the same fate in the NL. He not only increased its lead by a couple of points, but saw the runner-ups drop by quite a bit as he now leads them by almost 30 points.
AL Cy Young: Dave Johnson (SEA)--44% NL Cy Young: Dennis Eckersley (SF)—80%
The leaders are the same in both leagues and both of them gained some points. It is much closer in the AL, where only 4 pitchers are listed, but all have at least a 12% shot at the award. Second place in the NL is occupied by Mike Morgan, but with a slim 5% chance at it, Eckersley looks like a probable winner.
AL ROY: Rafael Palmeiro (TEX)--52% NL ROY: Tony Fernandez (STL)-26%
There was a complete change in both leagues for the RoY, as new players have taken over the lead. Rafael Palmeiro now appears to be in control in the AL, holding a 27 point lead over Motley with Carmelo Martinez almost out of the picture. Cardinals SS Tony Fernandez takes over backup Rex Hudler who dove to fourth place.
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Post by Exposgm on Oct 21, 2010 0:06:35 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for September 1, 1985.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 100% New York: 0% Detroit: 0% Toronto: 0%
With one month left to the season, the Red Sox have almost clinched the division. Once again, they were the only team in this division to win most of their ballgames, which helped increase their lead over the Yankees to 14.5 games. Detroit joined Toronto with a record below .500 while the Yankees continued to hold onto second place. The Tigers and Blue Jays obviously were expecting a better season and both teams will certainly be looking for answers in the postseason in order to get back in serious contention in 1986.
AL Central: Chicago: 10% Cleveland: 46% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 0% Minnesota: 44%
The only close division in the American League remains the AL Central. The Indians have increased their lead to 1.5 games over the Twins as both teams won 13 of their last 20 games. Cleveland’s performance of holding onto first place almost all season is remarkable considering the quality of the teams around them. The Tribe’s recent play has also paid well in the predictions, where the Indians have jumped ahead the others by gaining 26 points, the only team to gain anything concerning the division chances. The Twins lost 13 points, the White Sox lost 12 and the Brewers lost the tiny point they had last time. The sim tool also predicts at 100% the chances that the wildcard will come from this division.
AL West: California: 0% Texas: 0% Seattle: 100% Oakland: 0%
The Texas Rangers have won 14 of their last 20 games to be the division’s hottest team recently, but all that has done is ensuring third place for the team. All ranks are locked in this division: the Mariners will finish first, the Angels second, the Rangers third and the Athletics fourth. Hopefully, some teams will emerge soon and give the Mariners a better challenge.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 84% St. Louis: 16%
The Cardinals have caught fire and cut the lead to 1.5 games but on August 28th after a 12-1 win over the Expos, St. Louis had rejoined the Phillies atop the NL East. The Phillies are battling a few minor injuries to Fernando Valenzuela and more importantly to Dale Murphy, but both players will be back soon. The Phillies who had almost locked the division in the predictions some time ago have lost 13 points this last sim. Will the Cardinals repeat last year performance of making it to the postseason after a catastrophic start and a late comeback? The Mets and Expos are tied for third as both teams are 20 games back at this point. Montreal has been hit hard by injuries, losing 2B Alan Wiggins, SS Ivan DeJesus and SP Bill Wegman to various injuries.
NL Central: Atlanta: 33% (-32%) Chicago 33% (+28%) Cincinnati: 0% Pittsburgh: 34% (+5%)
How about that? With a month left to the season, three teams share an almost identical shot at the division in the NL Central. The Braves chose a bad moment to lose 7 of their last 10 games, causing them to drop by 32 points in the predictions. Pittsburgh and Chicago both won 7 games during that same stretch, with the Cubs showing the better improvement with a 28 point pickup. Atlanta remains ahead in the Standings by 1.5 games over the Pirates and 2 games on the Cubs. Only the Reds are now officially out of it. They’re 6.5 games out and have fallen to 8 games below .500. It looks like their streak of 15 consecutive playoffs apparitions will end this year. Cincinnati could also finish with a losing record for the first time since 1965.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 25% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 75%
With 8 wins over their last 10 games, the Dodgers have climbed to within 3 games of the Dodgers while taking 18 points from them in the predictions. Both teams also claim 98% of the wildcard chances, so in all logic whoever finishes in second place should still be around in October. The Giants again lost starter Larry Landreth to an injury. That’s too bad, as he is having his best-ever season (12-1, 2.49 ERA) and deserved a better fate. Los Angeles is also missing a couple of starters, Steve Bedrosian and Mike Morgan, but both will be back within days. Much like the Expos, the Padres have been hit by injuries, losing CF Otis Nixon, RF Paul O’Neill, closer Bob Lacey and reliever Randy Myers to different ailments.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Minnesota: 37% Cleveland: 36% Chicago: 22% Milwaukee: 5%
NL: Los Angeles: 73% San Francisco: 25% St. Louis: 2%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-34 San Francisco-26 Los Angeles-17 Philadelphia-12 Minnestota-6 Cleveland-2 Boston-2 Pittsburgh-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)—59% NL MVP: Dwayne Murphy (STL)--97%
Eddie Murray re-gained control of the race in the AL. Willie Aikens has the same chances as last time, but Murray seems to have grabbed everyone else’s chances at the award. The race is over in the NL or close to be, with Dwayne Murphy holding a 94 point lead at this point.
AL Cy Young: Frank Pastore (SEA)--62% NL Cy Young: Dennis Eckersley (SF)—48%
Frank Pastore has taken over teammate Dave Johnson who now has half the points of the leader. Dennis Eckersley took a dive in the NL but remains in the lead, with newcomer Kip Young of the Pirates being the only other NL pitcher in the double digits at 22%.
AL ROY: Rafael Palmeiro (TEX)--74% NL ROY: Tony Fernandez (STL)-57%
Both new (and recent) leaders have greatly increased their lead in the RoY category. Motley and Carmelo Martinez have almost disappeared from the race as RP Dave Beard replaced them in second place. Four players have at least a 10% shot at it in the NL, but Tony Fernandez holds more than half of these combined chances.
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