Post by Exposgm on Sept 7, 2010 14:42:15 GMT -5
The 1979 draft, at least in the first round, was very different from the 1978 draft. Very few outfielders were drafted, and most of those that were drafted weren’t all that good. The quality seemed more in the infield, where 8 of the 10 first picks were playing (including catcher). Most pitchers were drafted later in the first round, and so far few of these pitchers have been dominant, unlike hitters. Interestingly enough, one of the last picks in the first round also proved to be one of the bests. To have a better idea, let’s now take a look back on the 1979 draft.
#1 – 1B Andres Galarraga – Reds – The Cincinnat Reds had traded with the Mariners in order to obtain the first overall pick, which they used to select 1B Andres Galarraga. Showing a steady progression during his development, the “Big Cat” was called up for good in 1983, where he batted .254 with 16 homeruns and 62 RBI. He would do even better the following season, hitting at a .345 clip with 19 homeruns and 65 RBI in only 238 at bats. But Galarraga has only been playing part time, batting mostly against lefties. He’s much better than a platoon player, and the Reds would certainly benefit from his presence in the lineup every day. Should that happen, the 6’3, 235 lbs slugger would start putting up MVP-type numbers for several years to come.
#2 – SP Steve Engel – Blue Jays – The first pitcher taken in the 1979 draft, Engel didn’t stay long in the Blue Jays system, winding up in Chicago after the White Sox acquired him in 1981. Even though Engel has done well improving on his slider and adding a change to his repertoire, he hasn’t done well in the minors where he hasn’t had a single winning season yet. He still managed to progress rather well on his Overall. He’ll soon be part of the White Sox rotation, where his control will help him, but he needs to throw less gopher balls if he wants to become an ace.
#3 – 1B Don Mattingly – Dodgers – The Dodgers first pick in 1979, Mattingly did very well in the minors, never batting below .317 on his way to the big leagues. Oddly enough, the Dodgers did trade him to the Mariners in 1981, only to make another trade two years later to get him back. He earned the full time job in his 1984 rookie season, putting up solid numbers (.291, 15 HR, 81 RBI). He won’t hit like a typical slugger, but will collect a lot of doubles, walk more than he’ll strike out and drive in his share of runs. “Donnie Baseball” should be an important piece of the Dodgers offense for years to come.
#4 – SS Greg Gagne – Yankees – Even though his peak number decreased every season, Gagne did well on improving really fast on his Overall, allowing him to enter peak at 90/90. At only 21 years old, Gagne was ready to be the everyday shortstop for the Yankees, where he enjoyed a fine season and an even better sophomore year in 1984. In Gagne, the Yankees have a SS that will play great defense as well as displaying a solid bat for the next ten years.
#5 – C Mark Bailey – Pirates – A 6’5, switch-hitting catcher, Bailey has done a great job raising his peak number to a full 100. His Overall mark has been somewhat slower to increase, as he was experiencing some troubles getting his act together in his first few years in the minors. Bailey’s strength should be his powerful bat and play behind the plate, throwing runners off and handling pitchers. But he isn’t ready yet, as proved his .195 batting mark with 5 homeruns and 17 RBI in 43 games with the Bucs last year. He may need another year or two in the minors at this point to work on the holes in his swing.
#6 – C Donnie Scott – Cardinals – The second straight catcher drafted in a row, Scott never really improved on his peak number as he slowly progressed through the minors. He was very impressive in 1984 at AAA, but it’s a bit too late for him. He’ll make a solid backup, but doesn’t have a good enough bat to be successful as a starter.
#7 – 1B John Kruk – Phillies – A tremendous average hitter, Kruk displayed the extent of his talent at AAA last year when he batted .401 and had a .513 OBP. He would be ready, at 24, to make his contribution for the Phillies, but Dale Murphy is already occupying first base in Philadelphia. Kruk may stay in the minors another year, but he doesn’t have anything more to prove. It may not be during his rookie year that he challenges for the batting title, but expect him to be among the league’s top average hitters a few years from now.
#8 – SP Bryan Oelkers – Royals – A 6’3 lefty born in Spain, Oelkers took a while to settle in the minors. Owning a good fastball, Oelkers also has great command of his pitches. He’s very close to reaching the majors at this point, it could be this year or next season at the latest. How he will fare down the line is still undetermined at this point.
#9 – 3B Jack Howell – Giants – Howell improved his peak number a few times, which helped him enter peak higher than he was expected to on draft day. A lefty hitter with tremendous power, Howell struggled in his rookie season last year, batting only .223 with 7 homeruns and 49 RBI, but he should do much better from now on. He’s not only dangerous at the plate, but also excellent with the glove. He’ll be a key player for the Giants for the next few seasons.
#10 – 1B Glenn Davis – Mets – Traded by the Mets to the Braves in 1982 when Mike Pagliarulo was dealt to the Big Apple, Davis did pretty well in the minors. He took over first base in Atlanta last year when 1B Bob Adams went down again with another injury and stayed as starter for the remainder of the season, finishing with a .252 average, 16 homeruns and 66 RBI in only 110 games. His days in the minors are now over. Expect him to contribute a lot of power for this Braves team for years to come.
#11 – SP Jimmy Key – Rangers – Showing a very slow progression on his Overall since being drafted by the Rangers, Jimmy Key hasn’t yet reached the bigs, although that could happen any moment now. His minor league record isn’t impressive, but it wasn’t because he wasn’t pitching well. Key has good control but can get hurt by the long ball. He could be a decent fourth or fifth pitcher on most teams.
#12 – SP Kevin Gross – Cubs – Gross had one bad season between two pretty good ones in the minor leagues before making it into the Cubs rotation at age 21. His debut season was rough: a 10-16 record and 5.15 ERA, but he has somewhat settled since. The 6’5 righty has good control but can get touched by homeruns when his curve doesn’t break. He’ll find work as a starter pretty much anywhere, but don’t count on seeing him regularly at the All Star game.
#13 – SP Bill Swift – Angels – Pretty solid in the minors, Swift hasn’t yet thrown a pitch in the big leagues. Relying on very good control and stuff made up of effect pitches, he will probably need to spend another year or two at AAA before getting called up for good. At this point, he’ll probably become a solid #2 or 3 guy.
#14 – LF Dan Pasqua – Padres – We had to wait until the fourteenth pick to see the first outfielder get drafted. The Padres selected Dan Pasqua who had hit 45 homeruns in only 140 games in High School. He continued displaying power in the minors, batting between 14 and 17 homeruns in each season spent at AA or higher. He played in 76 games with the Padres last season, struggling to a .202 batting average with 6 homeruns and 34 RBI. He does have tremendous power potential, but probably needs another year in the minors to correct a few weaknesses in his swing. He’s also pretty solid defensively, but fans will remember him mostly for the shots he launches 450+ feet away from home plate on a regular basis.
#15 – SP Tim Belcher – Orioles – A 6’3, 230 lbs righty, Belcher progressed rather slowly on his Overall while dropping a few points on his peak number. Not exactly dominant in the minors, it’s not the two-seamer and the change he added to his repertoire that will save his career. At best, he’ll be a fifth starter, even on bad teams.
#16 – LF Vince Coleman – Twins – An impressive runner, Coleman was picked up by the Twins with the 16th overall pick. He flashed his base stealing capacities in the minors, also hitting relatively well at times, but it is now too late for Coleman to develop into anything else than a bench player.
#17 – RP Billy Taylor – Tigers – A huge 6’8 righty, Billy Taylor was the Tigers first round pick in 1979. He was a bit inconsistent in the minors, but nevertheless showed great promise. The kid owns an improbable but most impressive repertoire which helps him strike a lot of opponents while also avoiding walks, all of this without throwing any heat. He excelled in a late call-up in 1983, going 2-5 with a 2.93 ERA and 62 K in 61.1 innings. He won’t have a long career, maybe due to the way he pitches (he does have a fragile health), but while he last, he’ll be excellent.
#18 – RP Rick Aguilera – White Sox – Except during his first minor league season in which he struggled to a 5.00 ERA, Aguilera was very solid along the way. The 6’5 righty gave his peak a little boost while he was honing his pitching skills. Although he hasn’t pitched in the majors yet (1 game in 1982), Aguilera is more than ready. Keeping him in the minors would be a waste. He won’t strike out as many hitters as Billy Taylor, but his repertoire and control is as impressive as Taylor’s.
#19 – CF Donnell Nixon – Astros – Nixon started by raising his peak quite a bit and it has gone downhill since. He spent only two seasons in the minors before the Astros made him their full-time leadoff hitter. Nixon has stolen 29 or more bases in each of his four seasons and he has batted above .300 twice already. But he won’t get any better. He’s good enough to start for some teams, rarely makes errors in the outfield, but that’s about it.
#20 – SP Mark Ciardi – Athletics – Ciardi has improved his peak a couple of times and currently stands at 100. He also raised his Overall steadily. However, he hasn’t had any success in the minors. The kid has a ton of potential and would be ready to be part of any rotation. His 2-7 record and 6.58 ERA over 12 starts last season looks pretty bad, but that was on one of the worst teams around. Ciardi has all the tools to be successful. But he won’t work miracles if the A’s don’t put some ballplayers behind him.
#21 – LF Mickey Brantley – Brewers – A late first round pick by the Brewers, Brantley has climbed the levels and improved his numbers in a steady way over the years. It reflected on his Overall, while his peak went up a bit before going down some. His 1984 season at AA was excellent, with a .378 average, 30 homeruns and 130 RBI. His peak number and predicted stats suggest a future star, but he’s about to enter peak and will likely be a little less good than expected. He should still be able to hit well enough to play a role on any team, but he’s not the next Ken Henderson.
#22 – SP John Bohnet – Reds – Right after being drafted by the Reds, Bohnet was sent to the Tigers with whom he made his debut last season. A lefty relying on an explosive fastball and good sidearm curve, Bohnet also has good control but nevertheless didn’t break into the Tigers rotation. He did well enough from the bullpen, going 2-1 with a 3.69 ERA in 46.1 innings pitched over 15 games. He could certainly be used as a starter, although the results may not be as good.
#23 – SP John Leister – Indians – Leister was traded by the Indians to the Pittsburgh Pirates last April. He remains a pretty good pitching prospect, and even though he could probably make his debut this season, he could afford the extra year in the minors. He didn’t exactly dominate in the minors, but the control was good. Leister has a very good fastball, but may need to work on the rest of his stuff. But he’ll certainly make it to any rotation, maybe as a solid #3 guy.
#24 – RP Steve Ziem – Expos – Ziem was inconsistent early on in the minors but has settled very well these last few seasons. Already owning an elite fastball and some amazing control, Ziem is a great pitching prospect that should make his debut soon enough for the Expos. He’ll have success wherever he pitches.
#25 – 3B Steve Buechele – Braves – 24 teams ignored Buechele, allowing the Braves to select him with the 25th overall pick. He may have started out slowly in his first couple of seasons at AAA, but what followed next was so good that Atlanta traded another 3B prospect, Mike Pagliarulo, to the Mets. Making his debut last season after a month and a half in the minors, Buechele put up an amazing rookie year: his .296 average, 29 homeruns and 93 RBI in only 124 games earned him NL’s Rookie of the Year honors. If you thought the Braves had a good 3B in Ken Reitz, you’ll like Buechele even better.
#26 – CF Ken Gerhart – Red Sox – The last pick of the first round of the 1979 draft, Gerhart is still years away from making his debut. His progression on his Overall is insanely slow: Gerhart picked up only 7 points in six seasons. His peak number moved for the first time last year and the good news is it moved up. He still has plenty of time ahead, but he needs to start moving his Overall before it’s too late.
#1 – 1B Andres Galarraga – Reds – The Cincinnat Reds had traded with the Mariners in order to obtain the first overall pick, which they used to select 1B Andres Galarraga. Showing a steady progression during his development, the “Big Cat” was called up for good in 1983, where he batted .254 with 16 homeruns and 62 RBI. He would do even better the following season, hitting at a .345 clip with 19 homeruns and 65 RBI in only 238 at bats. But Galarraga has only been playing part time, batting mostly against lefties. He’s much better than a platoon player, and the Reds would certainly benefit from his presence in the lineup every day. Should that happen, the 6’3, 235 lbs slugger would start putting up MVP-type numbers for several years to come.
#2 – SP Steve Engel – Blue Jays – The first pitcher taken in the 1979 draft, Engel didn’t stay long in the Blue Jays system, winding up in Chicago after the White Sox acquired him in 1981. Even though Engel has done well improving on his slider and adding a change to his repertoire, he hasn’t done well in the minors where he hasn’t had a single winning season yet. He still managed to progress rather well on his Overall. He’ll soon be part of the White Sox rotation, where his control will help him, but he needs to throw less gopher balls if he wants to become an ace.
#3 – 1B Don Mattingly – Dodgers – The Dodgers first pick in 1979, Mattingly did very well in the minors, never batting below .317 on his way to the big leagues. Oddly enough, the Dodgers did trade him to the Mariners in 1981, only to make another trade two years later to get him back. He earned the full time job in his 1984 rookie season, putting up solid numbers (.291, 15 HR, 81 RBI). He won’t hit like a typical slugger, but will collect a lot of doubles, walk more than he’ll strike out and drive in his share of runs. “Donnie Baseball” should be an important piece of the Dodgers offense for years to come.
#4 – SS Greg Gagne – Yankees – Even though his peak number decreased every season, Gagne did well on improving really fast on his Overall, allowing him to enter peak at 90/90. At only 21 years old, Gagne was ready to be the everyday shortstop for the Yankees, where he enjoyed a fine season and an even better sophomore year in 1984. In Gagne, the Yankees have a SS that will play great defense as well as displaying a solid bat for the next ten years.
#5 – C Mark Bailey – Pirates – A 6’5, switch-hitting catcher, Bailey has done a great job raising his peak number to a full 100. His Overall mark has been somewhat slower to increase, as he was experiencing some troubles getting his act together in his first few years in the minors. Bailey’s strength should be his powerful bat and play behind the plate, throwing runners off and handling pitchers. But he isn’t ready yet, as proved his .195 batting mark with 5 homeruns and 17 RBI in 43 games with the Bucs last year. He may need another year or two in the minors at this point to work on the holes in his swing.
#6 – C Donnie Scott – Cardinals – The second straight catcher drafted in a row, Scott never really improved on his peak number as he slowly progressed through the minors. He was very impressive in 1984 at AAA, but it’s a bit too late for him. He’ll make a solid backup, but doesn’t have a good enough bat to be successful as a starter.
#7 – 1B John Kruk – Phillies – A tremendous average hitter, Kruk displayed the extent of his talent at AAA last year when he batted .401 and had a .513 OBP. He would be ready, at 24, to make his contribution for the Phillies, but Dale Murphy is already occupying first base in Philadelphia. Kruk may stay in the minors another year, but he doesn’t have anything more to prove. It may not be during his rookie year that he challenges for the batting title, but expect him to be among the league’s top average hitters a few years from now.
#8 – SP Bryan Oelkers – Royals – A 6’3 lefty born in Spain, Oelkers took a while to settle in the minors. Owning a good fastball, Oelkers also has great command of his pitches. He’s very close to reaching the majors at this point, it could be this year or next season at the latest. How he will fare down the line is still undetermined at this point.
#9 – 3B Jack Howell – Giants – Howell improved his peak number a few times, which helped him enter peak higher than he was expected to on draft day. A lefty hitter with tremendous power, Howell struggled in his rookie season last year, batting only .223 with 7 homeruns and 49 RBI, but he should do much better from now on. He’s not only dangerous at the plate, but also excellent with the glove. He’ll be a key player for the Giants for the next few seasons.
#10 – 1B Glenn Davis – Mets – Traded by the Mets to the Braves in 1982 when Mike Pagliarulo was dealt to the Big Apple, Davis did pretty well in the minors. He took over first base in Atlanta last year when 1B Bob Adams went down again with another injury and stayed as starter for the remainder of the season, finishing with a .252 average, 16 homeruns and 66 RBI in only 110 games. His days in the minors are now over. Expect him to contribute a lot of power for this Braves team for years to come.
#11 – SP Jimmy Key – Rangers – Showing a very slow progression on his Overall since being drafted by the Rangers, Jimmy Key hasn’t yet reached the bigs, although that could happen any moment now. His minor league record isn’t impressive, but it wasn’t because he wasn’t pitching well. Key has good control but can get hurt by the long ball. He could be a decent fourth or fifth pitcher on most teams.
#12 – SP Kevin Gross – Cubs – Gross had one bad season between two pretty good ones in the minor leagues before making it into the Cubs rotation at age 21. His debut season was rough: a 10-16 record and 5.15 ERA, but he has somewhat settled since. The 6’5 righty has good control but can get touched by homeruns when his curve doesn’t break. He’ll find work as a starter pretty much anywhere, but don’t count on seeing him regularly at the All Star game.
#13 – SP Bill Swift – Angels – Pretty solid in the minors, Swift hasn’t yet thrown a pitch in the big leagues. Relying on very good control and stuff made up of effect pitches, he will probably need to spend another year or two at AAA before getting called up for good. At this point, he’ll probably become a solid #2 or 3 guy.
#14 – LF Dan Pasqua – Padres – We had to wait until the fourteenth pick to see the first outfielder get drafted. The Padres selected Dan Pasqua who had hit 45 homeruns in only 140 games in High School. He continued displaying power in the minors, batting between 14 and 17 homeruns in each season spent at AA or higher. He played in 76 games with the Padres last season, struggling to a .202 batting average with 6 homeruns and 34 RBI. He does have tremendous power potential, but probably needs another year in the minors to correct a few weaknesses in his swing. He’s also pretty solid defensively, but fans will remember him mostly for the shots he launches 450+ feet away from home plate on a regular basis.
#15 – SP Tim Belcher – Orioles – A 6’3, 230 lbs righty, Belcher progressed rather slowly on his Overall while dropping a few points on his peak number. Not exactly dominant in the minors, it’s not the two-seamer and the change he added to his repertoire that will save his career. At best, he’ll be a fifth starter, even on bad teams.
#16 – LF Vince Coleman – Twins – An impressive runner, Coleman was picked up by the Twins with the 16th overall pick. He flashed his base stealing capacities in the minors, also hitting relatively well at times, but it is now too late for Coleman to develop into anything else than a bench player.
#17 – RP Billy Taylor – Tigers – A huge 6’8 righty, Billy Taylor was the Tigers first round pick in 1979. He was a bit inconsistent in the minors, but nevertheless showed great promise. The kid owns an improbable but most impressive repertoire which helps him strike a lot of opponents while also avoiding walks, all of this without throwing any heat. He excelled in a late call-up in 1983, going 2-5 with a 2.93 ERA and 62 K in 61.1 innings. He won’t have a long career, maybe due to the way he pitches (he does have a fragile health), but while he last, he’ll be excellent.
#18 – RP Rick Aguilera – White Sox – Except during his first minor league season in which he struggled to a 5.00 ERA, Aguilera was very solid along the way. The 6’5 righty gave his peak a little boost while he was honing his pitching skills. Although he hasn’t pitched in the majors yet (1 game in 1982), Aguilera is more than ready. Keeping him in the minors would be a waste. He won’t strike out as many hitters as Billy Taylor, but his repertoire and control is as impressive as Taylor’s.
#19 – CF Donnell Nixon – Astros – Nixon started by raising his peak quite a bit and it has gone downhill since. He spent only two seasons in the minors before the Astros made him their full-time leadoff hitter. Nixon has stolen 29 or more bases in each of his four seasons and he has batted above .300 twice already. But he won’t get any better. He’s good enough to start for some teams, rarely makes errors in the outfield, but that’s about it.
#20 – SP Mark Ciardi – Athletics – Ciardi has improved his peak a couple of times and currently stands at 100. He also raised his Overall steadily. However, he hasn’t had any success in the minors. The kid has a ton of potential and would be ready to be part of any rotation. His 2-7 record and 6.58 ERA over 12 starts last season looks pretty bad, but that was on one of the worst teams around. Ciardi has all the tools to be successful. But he won’t work miracles if the A’s don’t put some ballplayers behind him.
#21 – LF Mickey Brantley – Brewers – A late first round pick by the Brewers, Brantley has climbed the levels and improved his numbers in a steady way over the years. It reflected on his Overall, while his peak went up a bit before going down some. His 1984 season at AA was excellent, with a .378 average, 30 homeruns and 130 RBI. His peak number and predicted stats suggest a future star, but he’s about to enter peak and will likely be a little less good than expected. He should still be able to hit well enough to play a role on any team, but he’s not the next Ken Henderson.
#22 – SP John Bohnet – Reds – Right after being drafted by the Reds, Bohnet was sent to the Tigers with whom he made his debut last season. A lefty relying on an explosive fastball and good sidearm curve, Bohnet also has good control but nevertheless didn’t break into the Tigers rotation. He did well enough from the bullpen, going 2-1 with a 3.69 ERA in 46.1 innings pitched over 15 games. He could certainly be used as a starter, although the results may not be as good.
#23 – SP John Leister – Indians – Leister was traded by the Indians to the Pittsburgh Pirates last April. He remains a pretty good pitching prospect, and even though he could probably make his debut this season, he could afford the extra year in the minors. He didn’t exactly dominate in the minors, but the control was good. Leister has a very good fastball, but may need to work on the rest of his stuff. But he’ll certainly make it to any rotation, maybe as a solid #3 guy.
#24 – RP Steve Ziem – Expos – Ziem was inconsistent early on in the minors but has settled very well these last few seasons. Already owning an elite fastball and some amazing control, Ziem is a great pitching prospect that should make his debut soon enough for the Expos. He’ll have success wherever he pitches.
#25 – 3B Steve Buechele – Braves – 24 teams ignored Buechele, allowing the Braves to select him with the 25th overall pick. He may have started out slowly in his first couple of seasons at AAA, but what followed next was so good that Atlanta traded another 3B prospect, Mike Pagliarulo, to the Mets. Making his debut last season after a month and a half in the minors, Buechele put up an amazing rookie year: his .296 average, 29 homeruns and 93 RBI in only 124 games earned him NL’s Rookie of the Year honors. If you thought the Braves had a good 3B in Ken Reitz, you’ll like Buechele even better.
#26 – CF Ken Gerhart – Red Sox – The last pick of the first round of the 1979 draft, Gerhart is still years away from making his debut. His progression on his Overall is insanely slow: Gerhart picked up only 7 points in six seasons. His peak number moved for the first time last year and the good news is it moved up. He still has plenty of time ahead, but he needs to start moving his Overall before it’s too late.