Post by Exposgm on Jul 19, 2010 13:55:16 GMT -5
In the 1978 draft, 4 of the first 5 picks were outfielders, but the first pick was, like the previous year, a middle infielder. The first 4 SP drafted were all lefties, but all won’t be good. The first round was dominated by hitters, and even by the end of Round 1, some teams were still able to dig out some major talent. Several of these players have already reached the majors. Some of them are making quite a show while others will need a few more seasons before displaying the full extent of their talent. It is time again to look back on a past draft, and it’s now the 1978 Amateur draft that is being examined.
#1 – SS Cal Ripken – Mariners – Selected first overall in the 1978 draft, Cal Ripken started right at AAA level where his .339 batting mark showed great promise. In a September call-up in 1980, at only 19 years old, Ripken batted .262 with 2 homeruns and 14 RBI in 28 games. Everything was in place for him to start dominating from 1981 on. His 19 homeruns and 121 RBI earned him the AL Rookie of the Year honour the following season, and his defensive play earned him the first of two Gold Gloves so far. Ripken was instrumental in helping the Mariners win the World Series in 1982. He’ll be the best shortstop in the league for the next decade.
#2 – CF Chili Davis – Giants – Very solid in the minors, Davis broke the starting lineup in 1981, finishing the season with some respectable numbers (.270, 21 HR, 79 RBI). His sophomore season wasn’t as good as he saw his numbers drop to 13 homeruns and a .248 average. But he just had a breakthrough season in which he batted for .300, flirted with the 30 homerun plateau and drove in a career-best 119 RBI, earning his first invitation to the All Star classic. Davis will play a key role in the Giants future for many, many years.
#3 – CF Andy Van Slyke – White Sox – Van Slyke was certainly doing well in the minors during the weeks following his selection by the White Sox as the third overall player, but when he found himself starting 16 games at only 17 years old later that year, he was unable to do better than a paltry .171 average. He spent the following seasons trying to recover his confidence, going through a couple of tougher seasons at AA and AAA. He finally made it as a full-time starter in Chicago last year, batting .242 with 11 homeruns, 68 RBI as well as 14 triples and 20 steals in only 23 attempts. His power will keep improving, which will turn him into an even more dangerous hitter. One you’ll find yourself lucky to avoid if you play in the NL, or on Van Slyke’s team.
#4 – RF Tony Gwynn – Yankees – Gwynn played only 27 games in the minors, batting .368 before making the jump straight from Rookie level to the big leagues as early as 1979. He wasn’t bad, finishing the year with a .275 average, but it was obvious the best was to come. In 1980, he was putting up a 24-game hitting streak, batting .315 for the year, and last season, his .342 batting mark was tops in the American League. In his first five seasons, Gwynn has collected over 200 hits on three occasions. He’s also very efficient in the field, and just won his first Gold Glove.
#5 – CF Kirby Puckett – Cardinals – Puckett was batting an impressive .347 at AAA level in 1978, just a few months after the Cardinals had drafted him. He dropped his average to .272 the following year, but quickly recovered. Not very patient and not tremendously powerful (for the moment), Puckett can still hit for a high average with his share of extra-base hits. He put up the kind of numbers that we could have expected from him in his rookie year last season, batting for .289 with 38 doubles, 10 homeruns and 87 RBI. He split his time in the outfield between left and center, as the Cards already have a pretty solid player patrolling in the middle.
#6 – SP Frank Viola – Blue Jays – First pitcher taken in the 1978 draft, Viola had some troubles in the minors, combining a 30-32 before the Jays called him up for good. He has been rocked since them, and after 78 starts, he shows a poor 21-40 record and 5.42 ERA. But Viola is better than that, and he’s still learning many things in order to get better. The Blue Jays will soon improve, and so will Viola’s numbers. Are we looking at the next Mike McQueen? It very well may be the case.
#7 – 3B Howard Johnson – Twins – A switch-hitting third baseman with tremendous power potential, Johnson was selected by the Twins 7th overall in the 1978 Amateur draft. He showed some steady progression as well as solid numbers in the minors on his way to 67 games in 1983, mostly as a DH, hitting .238 with 8 homeruns and 30 RBI. “Ho Jo” won’t win awards with his glove, but he’s not there for that anyways. He may hit for a low average, at least early on, but the homeruns and RBI will be there.
#8 – 3B Terry Pendleton – Dodgers – Another switch-hitting third baseman, Pendleton has more the shape of a middle-infielder at 5”9. He may not pack a bat as powerful as Johnson’s, but he’ll still find a way to be very useful to his team at the plate. Pendleton enjoyed a fine rookie season in 1983, batting .292 with 11 homeruns and 54 RBI. And unlike Johnson, he will play excellent defense. Expect him to be one of the Dodgers key players for years to come.
#9 – SP Fernando Valenzuela – Phillies – Only the second pitcher taken in that draft, Valenzuela hasn’t reached the majors yet, thanks in part to a very slow progression. He was also having some troubles in the minors, but put together his best season so far, going 13-2 with a 3.02 at AAA with the Scranton Red Barons. He is still years away from the bigs, and it’s unsure at this point what type of role he’ll play on a rotation, but it probably won’t be as an ace.
#10 – 3B Mike Pagliarulo – Braves – The Braves had made a deal with the Cubs in order to improve their rank in the first round and that allowed them to get their hands on 3B Mike Pagliarulo. But Pagliarulo’s numbers were rather unimpressive in the minors, and by the end of 1982, he was sent to the New York Mets. He has yet to face major league pitching. Pagliarulo needs to haste his development a bit, or he could come up a bit short. The next two years will be crucial. He’ll either become the star many saw in him, or will turn into the next Darrell Evans.
#11 – 1B Sid Bream – Pirates – A huge 6’4, 225 lbs first baseman, Bream spent four long seasons at R level before finally reaching some higher levels. The kid still hasn’t reached the Pirates lineup, but he’s very close to it. With Pedro Guerrero in front of him in Pittsburgh, we can expect the Pirates will be patient with Bream. Nevertheless, once he makes it as a starter, he’ll be a very dangerous hitter.
#12 – 2B Harold Reynolds – Mets – Starting out slowly at Rookie level where it took him a few years to become dominant, Reynolds exploded in 1981 when he batted .341 at A level. Only two seasons later, he was the Opening day starter for the Mets. Some expected he would struggle in his rookie season, but the 22 year old switch-hitter had a very fine year, hitting at a .280 clip with 44 doubles, 99 runs scored and 22 stolen bases as well as some sure-handed defense. The Mets suffered through a streak of mediocre 2B since Ken Hubbs retired, but Reynolds is going to help the fans forget all about them. He may even do better than Hubbs, at least at the plate.
#13 – RP Gene Walter – Astros – The very first reliever drafted in 1978, Walter is a 6’4 lefty that throws a 95mph fastball to get by opposing hitters. But his control isn’t exactly great, and it won’t get better. Walter already has four seasons behind the belt, but hasn’t been dominant as show his 4.32 career ERA. Still, he has what it takes to be there for a while. Expect tough seasons ahead unless he changes air.
#14 – LF Paul Hodgson – Orioles – Montreal native Paul Hodgson was selected 14th overall by the Baltimore Orioles and has since worked hard on improving his peak number quite tremendously. He doesn’t have enormous power, but can hit for a high average and gets his share of walks. He is still a couple of years away. He’ll certainly be good enough to start for most teams, but may lack power or speed to really be a serious offensive threat.
#15 – 1B Kent Hrbek – Angels – Enormous at 6’4, 242 lbs, Hrbek progressed very quickly and was a regular starter at 1B for the Angels by 1982. He had a fair rookie season, but his second season was much better: Hrbek belted 28 homeruns and drove in 101 runs while maintaining a .315 average and helping the Angels to a spectacular divisional win in the AL West. Those were great numbers, but he could be doing even better in future years.
#16 – SP Jim Deshaies – Royals – Very inconsistent in the minors after being drafted by the Royals, Deshais saw his peak number increase before it dropped down again. Although he doesn’t have anything to learn in the minors anymore, Deshaies wasn’t called up to the bigs yet. With luck, he’ll make it to a rotation this year, but it’s not expected that he’ll be a key pitcher for any team. Look for him to become a fourth or fifth pitcher, or possibly a long reliever.
#17 – C Mickey Tettleton – Padres – Despite being only 23, Tettleton is already a journeyman. Drafted by the Padres in 1978, he got traded to Philadelphia in 1979, to Toronto in 1981 and now finds himself in the big Apple after the Mets agreed to give him $3.9M annually this winter in free agency. Tettleton spend most of his time as a backup, but he was a full-time DH in 1980 for the Blue Jays, batting .225 with 21 homeruns and 75 RBI. He does have power, as well as excellent patience, but other than that, he doesn’t do much. His .230 career average is about what you can expect from him. His defensive skills are also a bit weak for the position.
#18 – RF Tom Brunansky – Brewers – A 6’4, 225 lbs right fielder, Brunansky did pretty well in the minors, producing 100 runs in each of the last three seasons, including 108 RBI in only 116 games before the Brewers called him up for the remainder of the year. Then, in only 56 games with Milwaukee, he continued his excellent work, hitting .297 with 13 homeruns and 39 RBI. Brunansky has a ton of power and will hit more than his share of homeruns over the next few years.
#19 – RP Mark Eichhorn – Reds – One of a few pitchers with a submarine delivery, Eichhorn has done extremely well at times in the minors, getting closer to a regular spot in the Reds bullpen. He already has good control as well as good stuff, and he’ll even get better. He may be a couple of years away, but he’ll definitely be good enough to have a role on any bullpen. What role will that be remains to be determined.
#20 – 1B Alvin Davis – Tigers – Selected by the Tigers late in the first round of the 1978 draft, Davis quickly began an impressive minor league career. He never batted below .306 at any level. He also drove in his share of runs, but it took him some time to start displaying the power that was expected of him. Finally, in 1983, he had a breakthrough season, hitting 28 homeruns along with 133 RBI and a .393 batting average. That season, he also played in 35 games with the Tigers, batting .244 with 4 homeruns and 19 RBI. His minor league days should be over now. Davis started the year as the regular first baseman in Detroit, a job he should occupy for years to come while putting up some great power numbers and driving it a lot of runs.
#21 – SP Tom Browning – Expos – In serious search of a left-handed starter to be able to help them against some teams in the postseason, the Expos took a chance on starting pitcher Tom Browning. It wasn’t their best move. Browning was highly inconsistent in the minors and never looked at any moment like he’d become a good pitcher. In 1983, the Expos tried him in their rotation, but after 8 starts they had seen enough and he split the rest of the year between the minors and the bullpen after going 3-3 with a 6.16 ERA. Browning does have good control, but he allows a lot of homeruns and is often in trouble. He could definitely go down as the worst first round pick in franchise history.
#22 – RP Ken Howell – Athletics – Announced as a CF by the Athletics at the time of the selection, it turns out that Howell was and always had been a pitcher. Howell’s peak has gone up in every season since Oakland drafted him, and even though his Overall hasn’t climbed as fast, he still has time ahead and should be ready for the bigs within 2 or 3 years. Most of his minor league seasons were excellent. He’ll be excellent a few years from now. The only problem is that it won’t last long.
#23 – 1B Nick Esasky – Indians – Picked by the Indians, Esasky just reached AAA this season. Even though his peak number exploded and makes him look like a future stud, his Overall has progressed rather slowly. He is now 24, and appears to be years away from the majors. He does have time, which has to be good news in his case. The years ahead will be crucial to his development. In any case, don’t expect to see him at the highest level for another 3 or 4 years.
#24 – SP Mike Witt – Red Sox – Drafted by Boston, Witt still had a long way to go when the Red Sox decided to use him as a long reliever in 1983. Even though he only appeared in 6 games including 2 starts, Witt went 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA, allowing 20 walks in only 18 innings. He again started the season with Boston this year, but was traded to the New York Mets in early April. It appears he will be part of the Mets rotation this year. If Witt is to become good enough as a starter, it will come later. For the moment, his control isn’t up to the task, and he gives up too many homerun balls. But apparently, two teams couldn’t wait anymore for him to develop.
#25 – SP Jose DeLeon – Cubs – DeLeon was rather good early on in the minors, but struggled once he reached AAA. The kid added a slow curve and later improved it, but it won’t do much for his control problems. He spent the season in the Cubs bullpen last season, posting a 6.75 ERA over 41 innings and he’s back in the minors now. There isn’t much hope left in his case. He’ll be good enough to be a mop-up on some teams, but that’s pretty much it.
#26 – 2B Juan Samuel – Rangers – Selected with the last pick of the first round by the Texas Rangers, Samuel didn’t stay long with the team and got traded to the Giants at the end of that same season. It is true that Samuel may not be a threat to win the batting title or a Gold Glove, but he does have qualities, such as his power and his speed. In his rookie season last year, he batted .252 with 15 homeruns, 67 RBI and 17 stolen bases. He’s not going to be Ryne Sandberg, but he’ll make himself useful somehow.