Post by boobiegibson4three on Jun 8, 2010 14:46:34 GMT -5
With a duo of Indians getting 3,000 hits recently, and a third very close, will we ever see a player hit 4,000?
We have some talented players 32 and up, but none that can really expect to break 4,000. I used a rough formula of taking the players age and subtracting it from 40. Whatever is left i multiplied by 200 (this is just to get guys out of the way. All players have no shot unless they can pull a Julio Franco and play regularly in their late forties. Not happening in TMBL unless one of our smart GM's figure out how to give their player's PEDs.
The first player after the old guys to have a shot is 32 year old Al Cowens. After this season he should have 2000 hits, right now only 19 away. So I did rough math and added 8 seasons of 200 hits which leaves him 400 hits short. Also Cowens has only hit 200+ hits in one season. His peak ends this year too, so he has no shot, onto the next great hope!
The next guy, Jim Rice of the A's. He's only thirty with 1700 hits! Now Cowens kryponite was he only hit the 200 plateau once. Well Rice has done it three times and a very close fourth. Looking closer he has 4 more years of peak left. Could he have a legit shot? Nope. Even if he played out of his mind hitting 200 hits till 40 he would only have 3700 hits. No chance....moving on.
I'm moving down the career hit list, starting to get doubtful until I see the great SS Ozzie Smith. The wizard is only 28 with (probably) 1600 hits at the end of this season. He's 2 years younger then rice and practically has the same hit total! He also hits leadoff which gives plenty of ABs too. He's even hit 235 and 229 hits in single seasons. But his undoing is his peak is done at 33. But let's say for argument sake he can average 200 hits a season till 40. 12 seasons of 200 hit ball is 2400 hits. 2400 + 1600 = 4000!!!!!. Looks like hes a candidate.
Now looking closer, hypothetically he averages 210 hits until his peak. Thats 5 seasons of 210 = 1050. At 34 he would have 2650 hits. Lets say the next two season he hits 190 hits, giving him 380 hits added to his total. 3030. Now he's an old man with a gray beard at 36. Granted he is still playing regularly he gets 175 hits for the next 3 seasons. 525 + 3030 = 3555 hits going into his 40th season. We've seen players play okay in their 40th year like boog powell but this is probably his last decent season. I'll be optimistic and say he gets 175 again. 3,730....270 hits short. Will a team play him for two season just so he can get that milestone? Will he retire before then? Will he get hurt for a long time (his health rating is 91 which should help him in this pursuit).
Templeton and Yount are the 27 and have a lot of hits....but their peaks end too soon, yount's peak is 31 and templeton only has one peak year.
One other 27 with a lot of hits. Paul Molitor....Wow his peak doesnt end to 36. Hes a probable leadoff guy for most seasons. His health rating is a 90 and his lowest AB total for a full season is 623. He has 1460 hits this season and should be around a round 1500 for the end of the season. So the Wizard has a shot, albeit long, at 4000, well what about Molitor? He's a year younger and is only behind 100 hits? He also has a peak 3 years longer then Smith. Also this reporter has no clue if Ozzie will be a lifelong Pirate or if they will play him for the milestone, but Molitor's present team, the Twins, will keep Molitor for life and will play him full time until he gets 4000.
To predict Molior's shot I decided to average his hits from his peaks years. His average is 189 hits....very close to that 200 hit mark I think is needed for a legit shot at 4000. I also looked up his birthday to make sure he's not about to be 29...but he JUST turned 27.
1984 27 - 1500 + 189 = 1689
1985 28 - 1878
1986 29 - 2067
1987 30 - 2256
1988 31 - 2445
1989 32 - 2634
1990 33 - 2823
1991 34 - 3012
1992 35 - 3201
1993 36 - 3390
Now going into 1994, Molitor is out of peak at the age of 37. BBM predicts he retires in 1998. The first negative to Molitor's crusade is his bad longevity of 77. For Molitor's non peak numbers I'm going go off of his only pre peak year in majors, 1976, with the Rangers. He only played in 120 games but got a 151 hits. So....
1994 37 - 3541
1995 38 - 3692
1996 39 - 3843
1997 40 - 3994 ( So Close)
1998 41 - ?
The questions start up, will Molitor ever get hurt? will a switch to a newer BBM mess up his ratings? Will pitchers continue to get better? Will the steriod era of the mid ninties help push Molitors hits up a little? Will the Twins change their stadium to allow more hits? Right batting average is up 2% but strikeouts are on par with the league. Currently fould ground is average, but with a small foul territory, Molitor would have more opportunities for hits. Will Molitor go crazy for a couple of seasons like 78 where he got 220 hits?
We have some talented players 32 and up, but none that can really expect to break 4,000. I used a rough formula of taking the players age and subtracting it from 40. Whatever is left i multiplied by 200 (this is just to get guys out of the way. All players have no shot unless they can pull a Julio Franco and play regularly in their late forties. Not happening in TMBL unless one of our smart GM's figure out how to give their player's PEDs.
The first player after the old guys to have a shot is 32 year old Al Cowens. After this season he should have 2000 hits, right now only 19 away. So I did rough math and added 8 seasons of 200 hits which leaves him 400 hits short. Also Cowens has only hit 200+ hits in one season. His peak ends this year too, so he has no shot, onto the next great hope!
The next guy, Jim Rice of the A's. He's only thirty with 1700 hits! Now Cowens kryponite was he only hit the 200 plateau once. Well Rice has done it three times and a very close fourth. Looking closer he has 4 more years of peak left. Could he have a legit shot? Nope. Even if he played out of his mind hitting 200 hits till 40 he would only have 3700 hits. No chance....moving on.
I'm moving down the career hit list, starting to get doubtful until I see the great SS Ozzie Smith. The wizard is only 28 with (probably) 1600 hits at the end of this season. He's 2 years younger then rice and practically has the same hit total! He also hits leadoff which gives plenty of ABs too. He's even hit 235 and 229 hits in single seasons. But his undoing is his peak is done at 33. But let's say for argument sake he can average 200 hits a season till 40. 12 seasons of 200 hit ball is 2400 hits. 2400 + 1600 = 4000!!!!!. Looks like hes a candidate.
Now looking closer, hypothetically he averages 210 hits until his peak. Thats 5 seasons of 210 = 1050. At 34 he would have 2650 hits. Lets say the next two season he hits 190 hits, giving him 380 hits added to his total. 3030. Now he's an old man with a gray beard at 36. Granted he is still playing regularly he gets 175 hits for the next 3 seasons. 525 + 3030 = 3555 hits going into his 40th season. We've seen players play okay in their 40th year like boog powell but this is probably his last decent season. I'll be optimistic and say he gets 175 again. 3,730....270 hits short. Will a team play him for two season just so he can get that milestone? Will he retire before then? Will he get hurt for a long time (his health rating is 91 which should help him in this pursuit).
Templeton and Yount are the 27 and have a lot of hits....but their peaks end too soon, yount's peak is 31 and templeton only has one peak year.
One other 27 with a lot of hits. Paul Molitor....Wow his peak doesnt end to 36. Hes a probable leadoff guy for most seasons. His health rating is a 90 and his lowest AB total for a full season is 623. He has 1460 hits this season and should be around a round 1500 for the end of the season. So the Wizard has a shot, albeit long, at 4000, well what about Molitor? He's a year younger and is only behind 100 hits? He also has a peak 3 years longer then Smith. Also this reporter has no clue if Ozzie will be a lifelong Pirate or if they will play him for the milestone, but Molitor's present team, the Twins, will keep Molitor for life and will play him full time until he gets 4000.
To predict Molior's shot I decided to average his hits from his peaks years. His average is 189 hits....very close to that 200 hit mark I think is needed for a legit shot at 4000. I also looked up his birthday to make sure he's not about to be 29...but he JUST turned 27.
1984 27 - 1500 + 189 = 1689
1985 28 - 1878
1986 29 - 2067
1987 30 - 2256
1988 31 - 2445
1989 32 - 2634
1990 33 - 2823
1991 34 - 3012
1992 35 - 3201
1993 36 - 3390
Now going into 1994, Molitor is out of peak at the age of 37. BBM predicts he retires in 1998. The first negative to Molitor's crusade is his bad longevity of 77. For Molitor's non peak numbers I'm going go off of his only pre peak year in majors, 1976, with the Rangers. He only played in 120 games but got a 151 hits. So....
1994 37 - 3541
1995 38 - 3692
1996 39 - 3843
1997 40 - 3994 ( So Close)
1998 41 - ?
The questions start up, will Molitor ever get hurt? will a switch to a newer BBM mess up his ratings? Will pitchers continue to get better? Will the steriod era of the mid ninties help push Molitors hits up a little? Will the Twins change their stadium to allow more hits? Right batting average is up 2% but strikeouts are on par with the league. Currently fould ground is average, but with a small foul territory, Molitor would have more opportunities for hits. Will Molitor go crazy for a couple of seasons like 78 where he got 220 hits?