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Post by Exposgm on Apr 30, 2010 20:52:45 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for April 15, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 90% New York: 0% Detroit: 6% Toronto: 4%
It is a bit surprising to see the Red Sox so heavily favored here in the predictions, a year after the team lost the division to the Tigers. With the Yankees and Blue Jays being more and more solid, one would have expected the predictions in the AL East to be somewhat closer. The simulator also predicts that the Wildcard should come from this division. The tool places the Yankees in last place, but that should belong to Baltimore for the second straight year.
AL Central: Chicago: 2% Cleveland: 92% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 4% Minnesota: 2%
It’s even worst in the Central where the Indians own an early 92% shot at the division. We already know that Chicago, Milwaukee and Minnesota can contend, so things should in reality be closer than what is being shown here. The Twins are off to a tough 1-12 start, 10 games out of first after only two weeks thanks to an abysmal .218 team batting average. Kansas City is starting a couple of rookie stars, but it won’t move them out of last place yet.
AL West: California: 26% Texas: 0% Seattle: 74% Oakland: 0%
Even though Seattle is favored by 3 to 1 against the Angels to take the division, only 3 wins on average separate those two teams. The race in the AL West will only involve the Angels and Mariners, but it should last until the very end. A key injury or a MVP type season from any of their player could make the difference. Texas and Oakland should do better than last season, but both teams still have too many holes to even hope contending.
NL East: Montreal: 1% New York: 0% Philly: 81% St. Louis: 18%
Reality seems to have finally caught up with the aging Montreal Expos. The team isn’t officially out of contention yet, but a bad start is seriously hurting their chances. Philadelphia is the early favorite, but St. Louis is also off to a good start and could cause a surprise. This could be a two or three team race, but however it turns out, expect it to be decided in the final week of the season.
NL Central: Atlanta: 41% Chicago: 2% Cincinnati: 30% Pittsburgh: 27%
There is so much quality in this division that each team not only has chances to win its division but could also obtain the Wildcard berth. Everyone should finish above .500, with perhaps 3 teams winning more than 90 games. Atlanta is tops in predicted wins and the percentages early on, but not by a large margin. For the moment, the Cubs are ahead, but it would be surprising to see them or any other team for that matter lead the division all year long.
NL West: Houston: 18% Los Angeles: 72% San Diego: 6% San Francisco: 4%
In the NL West, every team also has a shot at the division, but here the quality isn’t the same. Only the Dodgers are predicted for a winning record, but barely with 82 projected wins. Houston is going to have to do something about its finances, as the team is on pace to go bankrupt. A long winning streak from any of these teams could decide of everything in this division.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Detroit: 32% Toronto: 18% California: 16% Minnesota: 13% Seattle: 7% Chicago: 7% Boston: 4% Cleveland: 1% Milwaukee: 1% Baltimore: 1%
NL: Cincinnati: 28% Atlanta: 25% Pittsburgh: 21% St. Louis: 14% Chicago: 6% Philadelphia: 5% Montreal: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Boston-28 Atlanta-20 Cincinnati-12 Pittsburgh-12 Philadelphia-10 Cleveland-6 St. Louis-5 Seattle-3 Detroit-2 California-1 Chicago(NL)-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)--42% NL MVP: Dale Murphy (PHI)--52%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--41% NL Cy Young: Roger Miller (CIN)--28%
AL ROY: Andy Van Slyke (CHW)--44% NL ROY: Kirby Puckett (STL)--49%
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Post by joshb914 on Apr 30, 2010 23:34:15 GMT -5
A lot of quality teams out there. It's nice to see the usual suspects starting to get a real run for their money!
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Post by Exposgm on Apr 30, 2010 23:37:51 GMT -5
Speaking of suspect, what is Randy Milligan doing in CF?
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Post by joshb914 on May 1, 2010 11:32:20 GMT -5
I wouldn't talk smack, ExposGM. EVERYTHING you told me about rebuilding my team was incorrect. Now it looks like things are falling apart north of the border while the Pirates (and the entire NL Central for that matter lol) are on the rise!
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Post by sj on May 1, 2010 13:05:32 GMT -5
I wouldn't talk smack, ExposGM. EVERYTHING you told me about rebuilding my team was incorrect. Now it looks like things are falling apart north of the border while the Pirates (and the entire NL Central for that matter lol) are on the rise! And, once again, you're playing a team that you engineered to lose 90+ games 8 seasons in a row, gathering top DPs during that period. From 1971 - 1978 you lost 100, 90, 95, 99, 108, 97, 90, 99. In only a couple of seasons as owner, you managed to take a consistent .500 team down to the 100 loss mark. You're a regular baseball genius. Who else could possibly conceive of tanking for 8 years of DPs, then win with a team that spent those 8 seasons in deep hibernation loading up on prospects? Other than almost everybody from every league I've ever played in, I mean. While I'm no stranger to playing guys out of position to get them in the lineup, they usually have a reason to be in the lineup. Milligan (71/75) has a predicted BA of .253 and fielding ratings, at first base, of 73, 63, 68. Leftie CF Mosby (94) sitting on the bench right now, is predicted for a .305 BA with 26HRs, and is rated 77 84 76 in Center. He's also 23 and in his first peak year. Pure genius. How did you devise this amazing strategy of sitting out a CF who can hit and field and replace him with a first baseman who can't do either? In a division where a few losses could mean the difference between 1st and 4th. Brilliant. You obviously do have the right to talk smack - on the short bus to the special school where everyone wears hockey helmets but never put on skates or hold a stick. Terry took over the Expos at their creation in 1969, and won his division by 1973. Over the last 10 seasons, he won it 9 times.
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Post by joshb914 on May 1, 2010 13:28:21 GMT -5
lol. Your posts always crack me up, Cardinals. I was just messing with Terry anyways. We just had some differences on my teams' direction and (for once) he was wrong. Everyone knows Montreal will be back. Calm down. Also, not sure if you know this but my bro just had surgery and it is his computer that has the game not mine so I missed the deadline.
You did get one thing wrong though, the vast majority of my current crop of players came via trades (Castino, Christenson, Espinosa, Haas, Guerrero etc.). Trades which were WILDLY criticized in this league. The only guys on my current team that I drafted are Moseby, Brooks and Smith. High draft picks were pointless for me because the minor league system was so jacked up until a few seasons ago when we equalized spending. I traded for a multitude of players that were about the same distance from peak and had already developed into the 65-75 rating area in other farm systems. That is one thing I will toot my own horn about as it took an absolutely ridiculous amount of time and work. Drafting the right guys takes time but you have the draft list right in front of you to draw from. I had to SEARCH for the right players on other teams' rosters and find the ways to get them.
I challenge ANYONE to come up with a different strategy that would have worked in the NL Central. The Cubs did the exact same thing going through a long rebuilding process. A quick fix simply will not do when you're going against two of the best organizations in the league within the division. The only way to compete is to come up with blue chippers at essentially every position and if you don't you aren't going to the postseason.
Your suggestion that I sit back and let my team lose money every season with an inflated payroll just to finish around .500 and be looking up at Cinci and ATL is absurd. Again, draft picks with the current minor league situation were virtually impossible as the previous owner had ruined my minors to the point that it didn't matter who I drafted. Sitting back and overspending on free agents and waiting for guys to not fully develop because of the bug in the minor league system was not an adequate solution. At least not if I wanted to ever win anything.
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Post by Exposgm on May 1, 2010 13:38:12 GMT -5
Also, not sure if you know this but my bro just had surgery and it is his computer that has the game not mine so I missed the deadline. Sorry to hear about Zeke. But I knew you'd use this as an excuse. The thing is, this is not the first time you miss the Opening sim. I've been commissioner long enough to notice these things, and anyway, on any file, I always look over every single team in the league. Too bad I lost files prior to last season because looking at all the April 15 files over the last decade, we could have had some fun. Hell, let's just look at the most recent one besides this season: 1982. On April 15, the Pirates had: 1B Randy Milligan (67/78) in LF while Ken Griffey (86/86) was on the bench, LF Tony Johnson (84/99) in RF while RF Sixto Lezcano (98/98) was on the bench, CF Kevin Romine (66/79) starting while CF Lloyd Moseby (88/95) was on the bench, C Jamie Quirk (84/84) starting while C Andy Etchebarren (89/89) was in AAA along with a couple more free agents pickups. This has been the case year after year after year. It's really too bad I cannot look past last season, but it's not as if it was something I wasn't aware about. So, what were the excuses in the past?
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Post by joshb914 on May 1, 2010 13:46:44 GMT -5
Terry, don't you know? My guys get motivated when they see the pine on opening day and come back with a vengeance! This was the key to my division title last year!
Seriously though, I have been a lazy owner in the past in terms of lineup changes and that has to change now that we're on to bigger and better things in Pittsburgh.
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Post by sj on May 1, 2010 15:11:09 GMT -5
Thank you. I have the same reaction to yours I knew about his surgery. How's he doing? You do know that you could copy and transfer the folder with the game in it from his computer to yours, right? BBM doesn't have any copy protection, and doesn't even need to be in the windows registry to work. It's a proven strategy, just not an original one. There's a difference between playing drafted players and trading DPs or drafted players for other prospects, but it's not that big I've gone both ways depending on the team I had. Find player is easier to use to locate prospects who've been around long enough for their peak projections to be somewhat accurate, than projecting the probable outcome of an amateur whose peak projections aren't even close. When you took over the Pirates, the Braves weren't a dominant team yet. Strong, but not dominant. The teams that decided to hibernate around that time helped make them dominant. I'm looking at a copy of the April 1 1970 file in 2k8, and the Pirates were far from being a lost cause. I'd say I could have won with them in two or three seasons. Four at the worst. Without hibernating. And I can think of at least four other owners who could have done the same. If I do that, then the Braves don't ever win 116 games because I'm not an automatic victory for them. Every team that hibernates makes the remaining teams stronger, both by giving them players and by letting them win enough games to boost their loyalty so that they have the income to afford the players in the future. Whoever it was that took over the Mets in 1976 did the same thing. More sacrificial lambs for the Braves and Reds of that period. I don't follow that. You didn't have a good minor league system so you couldn't use draft picks to get minor leaguers? Then why lose 100 games? You took over right around the change from 2k4 to 2k8, so nobody had a large minor league system. There was a roster limit in effect in 2k4. Nobody knew about that bug at the time you took the team apart. ;D
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Post by joshb914 on May 1, 2010 16:05:08 GMT -5
I cannot make a case for myself for when I first took over the team. I had never played the game but always enjoy these type of things so decided to give it a shot. I made some absolutely absurd moves/trades trying to put my own "imprint" on the team. If this was real life I would have surely been fired! When it was over, I was looking up at arguably the two best teams in the league within my own division. As well as a MASSIVE rebuilding process. I had two options: quit the league and leave the mess for someone else, or pour a ton of time into getting my team back to a competitive level.
One of the key decisions I made was that I did not want to be a 85-90 win team, but one that could legitimately compete. In the NL Central, that takes more than just a few good draft picks and trades, it takes a COMPLETE SHIFT in direction. I had to make sure I would have guys at nearly every single position that could rival the talents on Atlanta and Cinci. In any other division save perhaps the AL Central, it wouldn't have taken as much time and effort, but I was in a division where I had to face off against two of the most dominant teams in TMBL.
What I am trying to explain about the minors is that my system was so bad that it didn't much matter who I drafted. Of course there were can't-miss guys like Smith and Brooks, but most prospects would not reach their full potential. I spent top dollar on my minors from day one and never saw it improve over a C-. For instance, when I drafted Moseby (one of the few #1 DP's I held on to), he was coming nowhere close to what he is now (peaking in the high 80's with lower predicted stats and defensive ratings). I had been spending top dollar on my minor league system since I took over, but they simply never got better and we later learned this was a bug. I had simmed ahead myself and saw this was clear. That was why I felt the need to trade for prospects that had already spent their key development years in other systems.
Now that there is equalized spending I have been able to draft as I please. And we will see the benefits of that when the likes of Bream, Bailey, Coles, and Orsulak are unleashed.
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Post by Halos on May 1, 2010 17:19:20 GMT -5
Thanks for Rickey!
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Post by joshb914 on May 1, 2010 17:34:57 GMT -5
I thought we agreed never to mention that again. Screw you.
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Post by boobiegibson4three on May 2, 2010 19:08:34 GMT -5
Twins will be improved....i get a vacation for 2 weeks and can get caught up on everything, including fixing up the neglected twins lol.
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Post by Exposgm on May 2, 2010 23:12:20 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for April 30, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 91% New York: 0% Detroit: 8% Toronto: 1%
A month into the season, the AL East leaders are... the New York Yankees! It was 20 years ago that the Bronx Bombers last won their division. But their fans need to be more patient. The sim tool still doesn’t give them a chance for the division nor for the Wildcard. Everyone else but the Orioles are within 3 games or less from first place. The Red Sox and Tigers both improved their chances, but Boston remains heavily favored, while Detroit is the early leader for the Wildcard spot in terms of percentages.
AL Central: Chicago: 0% Cleveland: 97% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 0% Minnesota: 3%
Could the race in the AL Central already be over? The Indians are off to an amazing 22-4 start and lead by 7 games over the second-place Brewers. The Twins are playing a little better than in the first two weeks and are the only other team besides the Tribe to officially stand chances at the division according to the simulator. It will be quite a different story for the Wildcard spot however, for which every team in this division but the Royals should battle for. For some reason, the sim tool seems to favor the Twins among AL Central teams to earn that spot if it isn’t taken by the Tigers.
AL West: California: 34% Texas: 0% Seattle: 66% Oakland: 0%
The Texas Rangers have launched an early assault and taken the lead in the AL West but only 1.5 games separates first and last place at the moment. Only the Mariners and Angels are predicted to end up with a winning record, but the Rangers aren’t far behind and it’s still very early so that could obviously change over the course of the season. Oddly enough, even if the game projects the Rangers to have a 79-83 record, the sim tool believes they’ll manage only 64 wins. Expect the battle to take place between California and Seattle, but both teams have so much talent that it would be surprising to see any of the two run away with the division until the very end.
NL East: Montreal: 2% New York: 0% Philly: 60% St. Louis: 38%
In the span of only one sim, the Phillies chances have dropped by more than 20% while the Cardinals more than doubled their previous chances at the division. Things are currently extremely close with St. Louis ahead by only one game over the Phillies. Any injury or important trade occurring to one of these teams could decide of it all. The Expos could still play a role, but the pitching needs to recover from its worst performance perhaps in team history. The only sure thing in the NL East will be the Mets last place finish.
NL Central: Atlanta: 51% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 31% Pittsburgh: 18%
Only 3.5 games separate first from last place in the NL Central, but we can already notice some changes in the predictions. Everyone still has a legitimate shot at the Wildcard, but Chicago lost its chances at the division and Pittsburgh also took almost a 10% dive which was recuperated by Atlanta. The Cubs are nevertheless leading the division early on and owning the NL’s best record at this point. It seems that overall pitching in the NL is suffering except that of the Cardinals and Central teams aren’t benefiting any exception so far.
NL West: Houston: 8% Los Angeles: 86% San Diego: 1% San Francisco: 5%
The Dodgers have won 4 games in a row and jumped to a 1.5 game lead. Los Angeles improved its chances at the division and should come out as the winner once the season is over. Anything can still happen, as we have seen stranger things happen over the years. Houston is still considered as having a shot at the division, but in fact they have more a shot at bankruptcy. “Houston, we have a problem!”, and this time, it’s no oxygen leak.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Detroit: 36% Minnesota: 23% Toronto: 13% California: 8% Boston: 7% Chicago: 5% Seattle: 4% Milwaukee: 3% Cleveland: 1%
NL: Atlanta: 23% Cincinnati: 20% Pittsburgh: 20% St. Louis: 17% Chicago: 11% Philadelphia: 9%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Boston-21 Atlanta-16 Cleveland-16 Philadelphia-12 Cincinnati-7 Los Angeles-6 Pittsburgh-5 St. Louis-4 Seattle-4 Chicago(NL)-2 Detroit-1 California-1 Chicago(AL)-1 Minnesota-1 Montreal-1 Toronto-1
**For some unexplainable reason, the World Series total amounts to 99 despite running 100 sims, maybe due to a player’s strike, a lockout, an earthquake, an alien invasion or any other reason the sim tool could tell us if it could talk.
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)--25% NL MVP: Dale Murphy (PHI)--42%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--33% NL Cy Young: Pascual Perez (ATL)/Joe Price (LAD)—14%
AL ROY: Barry Bonds (KC)--55% NL ROY: Kirby Puckett (STL)--45%
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Post by Exposgm on May 7, 2010 16:00:48 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for May 15, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 92% New York: 0% Detroit: 8% Toronto: 0%
The Red Sox have turned on the engines and taken the lead in the AL East, winning 15 of their last 20 games and a 2 game lead over the Detroit Tigers. These same Tigers aren’t playing bad, but have somehow greatly improved their chances at the AL Wildcard spot. Even if they’re still within range, New York and Toronto don’t stand great chances at making it to the postseason, but both should flirt with a .500 record. The simulator now believes Baltimore could finish in fourth place, so if you want to bet on that, you may bet your stepmom instead of your house, it would be safer.
AL Central: Chicago: 0% Cleveland: 96% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 0% Minnesota: 4%
The point lost by the Indians was again picked up by the Twins, so there are little to no changes to report here. Cleveland was struck by injuries this week, but nothing too serious. The Tribe’s 2.76 team ERA is awesome and reminds us of the good old days of Whitey Ford, Curt Simmons and Dean Chance, all of whom made it to the Hall of Fame. Four teams from this division still have a shot at the Wildcard, but altogether they total 22%, which isn’t famous. Oh, but we have seen stranger things happen, haven’t we?
AL West: California: 9% Texas: 0% Seattle: 91% Oakland: 0%
Big ouch: the Angels lost 14 of their last 20 game and dropped to last place, some 7.5 games back. Being swept at home by the Mariners didn’t help. The results are that California lost 25 points in the percentages, all of which was grabbed by Seattle. But the Angels acquired C Carlton Fisk from the White Sox, which will be a nice upgrade over .180 hitting Pete Koegel. The Rangers and Athletics are ahead of the Angels for the moment, only 5.5 games out, but will not be a threat to this divisional race.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 68% St. Louis: 32%
The Phillies continued to improve their chances at the division, winning 5 straight games as they currently lead the St. Louis Cardinals by 2.5 games. The Expos don’t look like they’ll play a role this time, and should finish 3rd for the first time since 1972. The Mets remain the only team in TMBL predicted at 100% for a last place finish.
NL Central: Atlanta: 51% Chicago: 1% Cincinnati: 35% Pittsburgh: 13%
Things remain extremely tight in this division, with only 2.5 games between first and last place. Few chances since last time in the predictions, but some key injuries could impact the race for the next few weeks. The Cubs lost leadoff hitter Willie McGee, and the Reds will be without LF Gene Rook for a total of five weeks. Otherwise, every team here has a shot at the division as well as at the Wildcard. The game seems to predict that all NL Central teams will win at least 88 games, but the sim tool believes differently and thinks the Cubs will have a .500 record.
NL West: Houston: 12% Los Angeles: 78% San Diego: 8% San Francisco: 2%
The Dodgers lost 8 games in a row and were the only team from the NL West to lose percentage points during this sim. Nevertheless, they’re only one game back, and the last-place Giants only 1.5 back from first. No one is playing well lately, and the Padres are currently leading the pack with a mediocre 16-23 record. The bank is about to take over the Astros, who lost $104.5M since 1973. Hey, isn’t that their owner on the FBI’s Most Wanted list?
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Detroit: 55% Minnesota: 12% Boston: 8% Toronto: 6% California: 6% Milwaukee: 6% Seattle: 3% Chicago: 2% Cleveland: 2%
NL: Cincinnati: 35% Pittsburgh: 26% Atlanta: 18% St. Louis: 16% Philadelphia: 4% Chicago: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Boston-30 Cleveland-19 Atlanta-11 Philadelphia-11 Seattle-10 Cincinnati-7 Pittsburgh-4 Los Angeles-2 St. Louis-2 California-1 San Diego-1
**For some unexplainable reason, the World Series total amounts to 99 (again) despite running 100 sims, maybe due to a player’s strike, a lockout, an earthquake, an alien invasion or any other reason the sim tool could tell us if it could talk.
Awards:
AL MVP: Jason Thompson (CLE)--30% NL MVP: Eddie Murray (HOU)--31%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--36% NL Cy Young: Pascual Perez (ATL)—15%
AL ROY: Barry Bonds (KC)--36% NL ROY: Kirby Puckett (STL)--34%
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Post by Exposgm on May 9, 2010 14:11:38 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for May 31, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 92% New York: 0% Detroit: 8% Toronto: 0%
No changes here in the predictions, except in the Wildcard department. The Red Sox have won 13 of their last 20 games and hold a 4 game lead over the Tigers. Baltimore has also won 13 in 20 which has helped them out of last place, where they have been replaced by the Blue Jays. As for the Yankees, the sim tool is saying that the team could finish anywhere between 2nd and 5th, including a whopping 50% shot at last place.
AL Central: Chicago: 0% Cleveland: 96% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 2% Minnesota: 2%
The Indians are stable in the predictions, but continue to have a hard time with injuries, as CF Mookie Wilson, DH Gary Ward, RF Richie Zisk and SS Kevin Collins have all missed time this week. Cleveland remains ahead by 6.5 games over the second-place Brewers but pretty much alone for a shot at the division according to the simulator. The biggest change here concerns the Wildcard, as the Twins have more than doubled their chances.
AL West: California: 12% Texas: 0% Seattle: 88% Oakland: 0%
Winners of their last four games while the Mariners lost 3 in a row, the Angels are back in second place and within 7.5 games of the leaders. Much like the Twins, the Angels have strongly improved their chances at the Wildcard. California is still playing below .500 and batting .259 as a team isn’t helping. The Athletics are only half a game behind the Angels, but aren’t expected to stay close much longer.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 70% St. Louis: 30%
Hottest team in the NL lately, the Phillies have increased their lead in the NL East to a full 6 games over the Cardinals. This reflected in only a 2% increase in the percentages. The team looks in shape for a postseason appearance, but it will be one that will cost the team quite some money. Philadelphia is on a pace to lose close to $25M, but should at least have its best record since 1969. Something tells me the Cardinals are not going to get beat that easily. Expect them to tighten things up before the end.
NL Central: Atlanta: 51% Chicago: 1% Cincinnati: 28% Pittsburgh: 20%
For the third sim in a row, the Braves chances are at the same level. Only the Reds and Pirates lost and gained some points here. Everyone is playing well lately, except the Cubs who lost 12 of their last 20 games and dropped back 6.5 games behind Atlanta. This one could decide with a tie, either for the wildcard or even maybe a triple-tie. Odds are slim for that to happen, but if it can happen in a division, it is this one.
NL West: Houston: 5% Los Angeles: 90% San Diego: 4% San Francisco: 1%
The Dodgers are back in first place after winning their last 4 games, but only 1 game over the Padres, 3 up on the Astros and 5 ahead of the last-place Giants. Everyone still has a shot at the division, but it is the Dodgers who are given winners 9 out of 10 times. No one will have even the slightest shot at the Wildcard. This has been the misery division for quite a while now.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Detroit: 30% Minnesota: 30% California: 18% Milwaukee: 9% Boston: 5% Toronto: 3% Seattle: 3% Cleveland: 1% Baltimore: 1%
NL: Cincinnati: 36% Atlanta: 28% Pittsburgh: 21% St. Louis: 10% Philadelphia: 5%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Boston-24 Atlanta-22 Cleveland-15 Cincinnati-11 Philadelphia-9 Pittsburgh-7 Seattle-3 Los Angeles-3 St. Louis-3 Detroit-1 Minnesota-1
**For some unexplainable reason, the World Series total amounts to 99 (3rd time in a row) despite running 100 sims, maybe due to a player’s strike, a lockout, an earthquake, an alien invasion or any other reason the sim tool could tell us if it could talk.
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)--37% NL MVP: Eddie Murray (HOU)--35%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--67% NL Cy Young: Jay Pettibone (ATL)—15%
AL ROY: Barry Bonds (KC)--40% NL ROY: Kirby Puckett (STL)--58%
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Post by sj on May 9, 2010 17:22:44 GMT -5
Hottest team in the NL lately, the Phillies have increased their lead in the NL East to a full 6 games over the Cardinals. This reflected in only a 2% increase in the percentages. The team looks in shape for a postseason appearance, but it will be one that will cost the team quite some money. Philadelphia is on a pace to lose close to $25M At least they have the money to lose though. Unlike the Astros team which should be in the red in two or three more sims. Something tells me the Cardinals are not going to get beat that easily. Expect them to tighten things up before the end. I love the sentiment, but the AI doesn't seem to agree. Randolph setting a personal record low BA, Ramirez looking like he just can't hit major league pitching, guys that should have been effective subs in this kind of situation not even coming close, and almost everyone with more than 20 ABs bombing out against lefty pitching. It would take a miracle. Or a team willing to trade a good hitting and good fielding IF for less than every 90+ prospect I have, which is almost the same thing.
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Post by Philthydelphia on May 9, 2010 18:37:20 GMT -5
The Cardinals definitely not out of the race - they still have a great shot...the injury bug may be the only difference.
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Post by Exposgm on May 16, 2010 16:32:25 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for June 15, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 94% New York: 0% Detroit: 6% Toronto: 0%
Boston has been playing very well lately and remains almost a lock for the division title. The Tigers are still up there, still leading for the wildcard in the predictions department but still trailing the Brewers by 1.5 games. Detroit lost its DH Mike Ivie but shouldn’t have any troubles finding him a replacement. The rest of the division is struggling and the Orioles, who lost six in a row, are back in last place, perhaps for the remainder of the season.
AL Central: Chicago: 0% Cleveland: 97% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 0% Minnesota: 3%
No one is playing great or bad lately, maybe except the Twins who have made a few acquisitions and now have a winning record. In fact, the Twins have been improving their shot at the wildcard once again, and look to be the most serious threat to the Tigers for that last playoff spot. The Indians keep battling injuries, this time to RF Richie Zisk and P Rick Honeycutt, but the team is still predicted to cruise to an easy division win. The White Sox seem to be out of it this year, after being more a factor than not these last few years.
AL West: California: 6% Texas: 0% Seattle: 94% Oakland: 0%
California remains some 8.5 games back, struggling to keep its record above .500 despite sporting tremendous talent all over the field. In his first month with the Angels, catcher Carlton Fisk is batting only .200 with 4 homeruns and 7 RBI, which isn’t helping much. The Mariners look to be on their way to an easy win according to the predictions. But this is the sim tool, and we all know results can be pretty different in the end. Still, it’ll be interesting to see what happens once 1B Eddie Murray joins the World Champs.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 98% St. Louis: 2%
Though stretch for the Cardinals, losing 14 of their last 20 games and almost disappearing of the race in the NL East. St. Louis dropped below .500, some 13 games out of first and 8.5 back for the wildcard, despite having one of the best pitching staff in the National League. The timing was bad, too, as the Phillies went red hot in that same stretch, winning 15 in 20. This could be the first division title for Philadelphia since the mid-60s. Montreal won’t be a factor for the first time in years, and the Mets, well the Mets, what can you hope for when your best starting pitcher has a 5.28 ERA? Awful, god awful...
NL Central: Atlanta: 48% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 26% Pittsburgh: 26%
The Pirates have jumped ahead by half a game for the moment, but third place is only 2 games back and even the Cubs, with 12 wins in their last 20 games, are back within 5.5 games. Atlanta remains favored here in the predictions, but whatever happens with this division, things are going to be extremely close until the very end. It’s now a certitude that the wildcard will come from this division.
NL West: Houston: 4% Los Angeles: 94% San Diego: 2% San Francisco: 0%
Hottest team in the NL, the Dodgers won 16 of their last 20 contests and increased their lead to 5.5 games over Houston. The Astros will soon be completely out of it with the selling of most of their stars, which should pretty much end any race in the NL West. Anything remains possible, of course, especially if the Padres put together a nice winning streak.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Detroit: 43% Minnesota: 38% California: 5% Boston: 5% Milwaukee: 4% Cleveland: 3% Toronto: 1% Seattle: 1%
NL: Cincinnati: 36% Pittsburgh: 32% Atlanta: 29% St. Louis: 2% Philadelphia: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Boston-22 Atlanta-22 Philadelphia-17 Cleveland-10 Cincinnati-8 Los Angeles-8 Pittsburgh-6 Seattle-4 Minnesota-2 Milwaukee-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Kirk Gibson (BOS)--53% NL MVP: Mark Corey (ATL)--29%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--77% NL Cy Young: Roger Miller (CIN)—29%
AL ROY: Barry Bonds (KC)--62% NL ROY: Kirby Puckett (STL)-47%
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Post by Exposgm on May 20, 2010 0:10:55 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for June 30, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 100% New York: 0% Detroit: 0% Toronto: 0%
Halfway point through the season, the Red Sox apparently have locked up the division, and it is true that a nine game lead is rather comfortable. Mike McQueen (11-1, 2.92) is in Cy Young form again, and leads what is by far the best pitching staff in the league. Boston is playing extremely well lately, the only AL East team to do so. The Tigers dropped but still lead in the wildcard predictions, despite being 6 games back behind the current wildcard leaders, the Brewers. The Orioles and Blue Jays once again traded places, and the odd thing is that the sim tool says that the Yankees have the best shot at last place.
AL Central: Chicago: 0% Cleveland: 93% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 5% Minnesota: 2%
The team of the hour is in Milwaukee where the Brewers have won 15 of their last 20 games. This helped them not only increase their lead for the Wildcard, but also to get them within only 1 game of the Indians. Asides from Leon Durham, nobody is really enjoying that good a season, but it’s been good enough for the team to improve its chances at the wildcard tremendously over the last two weeks. The Twins have been extremely active, but are still 10 games out at this point, and 9 away from the wildcard spot. There is still hope in their case, but any injuries to their players, such as is the case right now with starters Rick Langford and Dan Larson, will cost them dearly. The White Sox have lost six in a row and 14 in 20 and are a lock for fourth place, unless they catch up with the Royals who aren’t far behind.
AL West: California: 2% Texas: 0% Seattle: 98% Oakland: 0%
The Angels have won 4 in a row and 14 of their last 20 contests, but unfortunately the Mariners have played exactly the same way over the same stretch, meaning the gap between the 2 teams didn’t diminish. As if California needed another obstacle, SS Dickie Thon went down with a groin injury. Oakland and Texas, who didn’t seem too much out of it until now, have both started losing games like crazy and should remain far, far behind for the rest of the way.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 86% St. Louis: 14%
Interestingly enough, now that the Cardinals dropped to a full 11 games back of first, the sim tool seems to think things are going well enough for them to give them a 12 point boost here in the predictions for first place. It would take a lot of things going wrong in Philadelphia for that team to finish second. Only two of their regular hitters are hitting below .290. It reflects on the pitching side: all the starters have a winning record despite each of them showing ERAs above 3.94. The Expos are only within 5 games of second place, but will most probably settle for third, even though they are given a 1% shot at last place. That, however, isn’t likely to happen considering the Mets are on their way to win 63 games.
NL Central: Atlanta: 53% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 21% Pittsburgh: 26%
Despite the fact that things have been and continue to be close in this division, one thing that hasn’t changed is the fact that the Braves have lead by quite a bit the predictions for first-place finishes. They are currently tied with the Pirates with Cincinnati only 2 games back. Oddly enough, the Braves lead the predictions for first place, wildcard and second place finishes in the division. Only the Cubs seem to be too inconsistent to be in contention all season. They have one good stretch, get back within 5 games, then one bad stretch and drop to 9.5 out. It seems to be another year to forget in Chicago then.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 100% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 0%
A 6.5 game lead may not be as reassuring as showing a 100% shot at the division, but with what happened lately in the division, things are indeed looking good for the Dodgers. The Astros are still in second place, but slowly dismantling and will soon be very much out of contention. The Padres, who could have pulled back in the race with a good sim, instead lost 15 of their last 20 games and are now 9 games away. The Giants are also playing awful ball and have even replaced the Mets as the NL team with the worst record.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Detroit: 32% Milwaukee: 24% Minnesota: 19% California: 19% Cleveland: 5% Seattle: 1%
NL: Atlanta: 31% Pittsburgh: 25% Cincinnati: 24% St. Louis: 15% Philadelphia: 5%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Boston-30 Seattle-18 Atlanta-12 Philadelphia-12 Cleveland-8 Cincinnati-7 Los Angeles-4 Pittsburgh-4 St.Louis-4 California-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)--27% NL MVP: Mark Corey (ATL)--33%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--68% NL Cy Young: Roger Miller (CIN)—33%
AL ROY: Barry Bonds (KC)--62% NL ROY: Kirby Puckett (STL)-86%
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Post by Exposgm on May 23, 2010 0:08:22 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for July 15, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 100% New York: 0% Detroit: 0% Toronto: 0%
Things are starting to get difficult for the Tigers. Unable to catch up with the Red Sox at the top of the division, the team is also starting to trail for the wildcard. Leading for the wildcard in the predictions up until now, Detroit has been passed by the Angels, the hottest AL team right now. It needs more from RF Dave Winfield than a .244 average, by far his worst season ever. As for Boston, they have won 15 in 20 and look to be on their way to the playoffs after a missed opportunity in 1982.
AL Central: Chicago: 0% Cleveland: 85% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 10% Minnesota: 5%
The Indians continue to drop in the predictions, giving some points back to the Twins and Brewers, but the Tribe still has a big edge in the predictions. Cleveland also reclaimed a bit of its lead for first place and currently leads Milwaukee by 3.5 games. Watch out for the Twins, though, only 7.5 games back after 15 wins over their last 20 contests. The Indians still project to win 6 more games than the Brewers and 9 more than the Twins, but expect the final standings to be closer than that.
AL West: California: 16% Texas: 0% Seattle: 84% Oakland: 0%
The Angels have definitely put their slow start behind them and have continued to play extremely well lately, so well in fact that they now find themselves only 2.5 games out of first. Eddie Murray has been red hot for the Mariners since his arrival (.374, 9 hr, 24 RBI in 24 games) but the starting pitchers all have ERAs above four and some relievers are also struggling. California is currently 3.5 games back from the Wildcard, but has taken control of the lead prediction-wise. Carlton Fisk is batting .459 over his last 10 games and the Angels have won 9 of those games.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 84% St. Louis: 16%
Both St. Louis and Philadelphia have been playing well lately, which hasn’t helped the Cardinals cause since they remain 10.5 games out at this point. An injury to 3B Manny Castillo, who had just raised his average back to .300 after a slow start, won’t help either. The Phillies rely on the NL’s best offense, scoring a whopping 5.70 runs per game, which helps them quite a lot since the pitching staff isn’t doing well at all. No one has a losing record on the rotation, but the best ERA, and by far, is that of Dave Stieb at 4.16. As for the Expos, well, they’re enjoying a push by the Montreal Canadiens who have reached the semi-finals for the first time since yours truly was in high school, and hoping here also not to lose out to the city of brotherly-love.
NL Central: Atlanta: 53% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 20% Pittsburgh: 27%
Almost absolutely nothing changed in this division. The Pirates increased in the percentages by 1 point, which was the same point lost by the Reds. Atlanta took the lead back, but only 1 game up on the Reds and Pirates. The wildcard should come from this division, but don’t count the Cardinals out as they’re only 5.5 games back in this race. The Reds pitching staff is awesome yet again this season, but asides from Fred Lynn, nobody is shining on the offensive side.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 100% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 0%
Even if a chickenpox epidemic hit the Dodgers team, LA would still cruise to an unchallenged division title this year. The Astros, Padres and Giants have all lost a ton of games lately and in the Astros case the freefall should continue for a while. The Dodgers may not finish with a sparkling record, but once in the postseason, anything can happen, especially with a pitching staff like they have. If only they didn’t have the 2nd worst offense in the NL, they would really be a serious threat. Their best homerun hitter, Bill Schroeder, has only 9 homeruns and his batting average is well below the Mendoza line at .183.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: California: 35% Minnesota: 19% Detroit: 17% Milwaukee: 16% Cleveland: 10% Seattle: 3%
NL: Cincinnati: 34% Atlanta: 23% Pittsburgh: 20% St. Louis: 18% Philadelphia: 5%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Boston-34 Atlanta-16 Seattle-9 Philadelphia-9 St.Louis-9 Cleveland-7 Los Angeles-6 Pittsburgh-5 Cincinnati-3 California-1 Minnesota-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)--37% NL MVP: Mark Corey (ATL)--35%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--88% NL Cy Young: Jay Pettibone (ATL)—29%
AL ROY: Barry Bonds (KC)--77% NL ROY: Kirby Puckett (STL)-42%
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Post by Exposgm on May 27, 2010 10:40:28 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for July 31, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 100% New York: 0% Detroit: 0% Toronto: 0%
The Tigers may have secured second place in the AL East, all hope is almost lost for the Wildcard, at least according to the sim tool. Detroit trails Milwaukee by 9.5 games for the last postseason spot and will have to do without rookie reliever Pat Perry for another week. The Orioles lost 10 games in a row and fell back to last place again, with Toronto not very far ahead.
AL Central: Chicago: 0% Cleveland: 94% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 6% Minnesota: 0%
Both Cleveland and Milwaukee have won 15 of their last 20 games as the Indians regained a bit of their lead here in the predictions as well as a 2.5 game lead atop the AL Central. The Brewers won their last 7 games, but 19 year old phenom 1B Fred McGriff went down with a knee injury and will miss a couple of weeks. It’s starting to get late for the Twins who, for a while, looked like they were going to launch an assault at the Wildcard, but 10.5 games out with 2 months to go is quite a mission. Chicago’s Sandy Alomar Sr. Suffered a pulled groin, and at 41 years old, looks like he’s at the very end of a solid career.
AL West: California: 24% Texas: 0% Seattle: 76% Oakland: 0%
The Angels have been unstoppable and have continued to get closer to the Mariners as only 2 games separate these two teams, the smallest such gap in TMBL right now. With the Brewers looking like they will once again run away with the Wildcard, the Angels may need to take the division if they want to keep playing in October. Seattle’s key acquisition, 1B Eddie Murray, will miss a week with a rib injury. Texas and Oakland will battle it out for third place, but this could be the only division with two 100+ losses teams.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 78% St. Louis: 22%
The Phillies are enjoying all sorts of difficulties and have lost 14 of their last 20 contests, while the Cardinals won most of their games to get back within 6 games of the lead with 2 months left to the season. Dave Stieb suffered a separated shoulder for the Phillies and will miss another week or so. If the Cards keep pushing, this will be an interesting finish.
NL Central: Atlanta: 85% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 7% Pittsburgh: 8%
Hovering around 50% for the division title all year, the Braves continued to play well while the Reds and Pirates struggled a bit and that was sufficient to boost Atlanta’s chances to a whopping 85%. The NL’s best record also belongs to the Braves. The Pirates lead the way for the wildcard, but their lead is only of half a game over Cincinnati, 4 up on St. Louis and 5.5 on Chicago, so anything can still happen here.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 100% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 0%
The Dodgers lost 3 in a row as well as starter Paul Thormodsgard but remain unworried for the divisional win. The NL’s lowest batting average has a few struggling players, including cleanup hitter Lee Mazzilli who’s batting .238 with only 4 homeruns in 97 games. The Astros continue to freefall, after losing 15 in 20. 1B Barbaro Garbey has been sent to 3B, where he produced 6 errors in only 17 games for a crappy .897 fielding percentage.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Milwaukee: 62% California: 20% Minnesota: 9% Cleveland: 4% Seattle: 3% Detroit: 2%
NL: Pittsburgh: 43% Cincinnati: 31% Atlanta: 11% St. Louis: 10% Philadelphia: 5%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Atlanta-26 Boston-21 Seattle-15 Philadelphia-15 Cleveland-6 St.Louis-4 Cincinnati-4 Pittsburgh-3 Los Angeles-2 Milwaukee-2 California-2
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)--45% NL MVP: Mark Corey (ATL)--48%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--89% NL Cy Young: Jay Pettibone (ATL)—79%
AL ROY: Barry Bonds (KC)--87% NL ROY: Al Greene (PHI)-78%
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Post by Exposgm on May 30, 2010 13:56:41 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for August 15, 1983.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 100% New York: 0% Detroit: 0% Toronto: 0%
Despite a couple of injuries, the Red Sox continue to play well and slowly cruise to an easy divisional win. Easy may be the final result, but not the one that was expected. For instance, by looking at the teams Pythagorean records, it is amazing to notice that while most teams Pythagorean record more or less matches their actual record, in the Tigers case, their current record counts 11 less wins than what their Pythagorean record would suggest. Such a difference is unusual, considering 8 teams in the AL have a wins difference of 3 or less in that area. Needless to say, would the Tigers actually have 75 wins as their Pythagorean record suggests, they would only be 3.5 games out of first place, and only 1.5 games back of the Wildcard, instead of being 15.5 and 13 games back respectively.
AL Central: Chicago: 0% Cleveland: 88% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 12% Minnesota: 0%
Even injuries to hitters such as Fred McGriff and Johnny Bench don’t seem to slow down the Brewers, who remain the AL’s hottest team with 15 wins over their last 20 games. Cleveland won 14 over the same period of time, which allowed them to maintain a 2.5 game lead, but the gap for the Wildcard increased to a full 7 games between Milwaukee and California. At least the NL wildcard race is still exciting.
AL West: California: 26% Texas: 0% Seattle: 74% Oakland: 0%
Seattle and California keep playing well and now only 1 game separate these two teams. Talk about tremendous offensive punch at the top of a lineup: the Angels first four hitters all have 22 or more homeruns. It isn’t as dangerous when you get to the bottom four hitters, though. The rest of August will be tough for the Angels who face a lot of the Red Sox, Indians and Tigers, while the Mariners get to meet the Royals and Yankees 9 times before the end of the month.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 86% St. Louis: 14%
Hottest NL team, St. Louis won 15 of its last 20 games and has continued to cut on the Phillies lead, which now stands at 3.5 games. The Phillies have been without Dale Murphy for two weeks after he suffered a shoulder injury, but he’ll be back soon. Amazing work for the Cardinals pitching staff, as everyone on staff is keeping its ERA below four except reliever Jeff Reardon (6.20). The Expos and Mets aren’t playing well at all lately, but it would be unlikely for Montreal to catch up at the bottom of the division with the Mets who are 10 games behind them.
NL Central: Atlanta: 88% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 8% Pittsburgh: 4%
With 14 wins over their last 20 games, the Braves have increased their lead to 6 games atop the NL Central and are looking extremely good to take the division away from their opponents. The Reds are also playing well, and the Pirates just came off 5 straight wins, but Pittsburgh had troubles a little earlier and now find themselves 7.5 games back of the Braves. The Wildcard is still very well in reach, though, with the Reds leading the Pirates by a mere 1.5 game and the Cardinals by 3 games. A big injury occurred in Cincinnati, however: Reds C Bob Didier suffered a serious hip injury and will be out the rest of the year. It’s true that he wasn’t enjoying a great offensive season, but team backup Glenn Brummer may have the worst arm by a catcher in league history. Can he even throw it back to the pitcher, or are we looking at a potential Mackey Sasser?
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 100% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 0%
Dodgers rookie pitcher Mike Morgan, enjoying an awesome first season, will miss a couple of weeks with a broken finger, but that won’t worry the Dodgers much. 15.5 games separate first and second place in this division and that’s about as close as things will be the rest of the way. The Padres also lost a young starter, Tim Leary, to a back injury, while the Giants will do without starter Larry Landreth who broke his foot.
Chances at the WildCard:
AL: Milwaukee: 67% California: 14% Cleveland: 10% Seattle: 8% Minnesota: 1%
NL: Pittsburgh: 38% Cincinnati: 37% Atlanta: 11% St. Louis: 10% Philadelphia: 4%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Atlanta-35 Boston-26 Seattle-11 Philadelphia-8 Pittsburgh-5 Cleveland-5 Cincinnati-3 St.Louis-2 Los Angeles-2 Milwaukee-2 California-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)--64% NL MVP: Mark Corey (ATL)--69%
AL Cy Young: Mike McQueen (BOS)--90% NL Cy Young: Jay Pettibone (ATL)—96%
AL ROY: Barry Bonds (KC)--63% NL ROY: Kirby Puckett (STL)-39%
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