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Post by boobiegibson4three on Dec 6, 2010 15:11:46 GMT -5
As always...terry, scott, etc do this article 100 x's better then me, but no one has done it yet so here it is... AL EASTToronto only holds a one game lead in the early season, but have the division for all intents and purposes locked up. The sim says with a 97% chance. Detroit holds a small 3 % chance, but they have some young guys, like 24 year old OF Ivan calderon (.244/.366/.645), that have struggled but once they get going they might give toronto a fight. Plus we all know JohnnyBoy will be wheeling and dealing. Projected in third is the defending East champs, Boston Red Sox. They are projected to have a losing season, 77-85. Baltimore is baltimore and will battle with the yanks for last place, according to the sim. The yanks problem is pitching as they have the second worst team era at 6.66. I'd also say having the devils curse is a bad thing too ;D AL CENTRAL4 teams are projected to win 90 games in this division, with the other projecting to not reach the 50 win plateu . Twins hold a slight early lead at 49% with chicago and cleveland at 26 and 21 respectively. Milwaukee holds a 4% hope, but there 90 games is only 5 back of cleveland, 6 of chicago, and 10 of minnesota. One huge trade, or no big injuries could swing the 4% quickly. Division leader, White Sox (8-2) have done it through pitching with a league best team era of .263. Conversley the Indians have slugged their way to second place. Cleveland pitchers hold a team era of 5.53, while scoring a league best 6.9 runs a game. HOLY COW thats a lot of run support. The only hope in KC is that BBM decides that if Mark McGwire is on some ones team, that team gets a 20% bump in power because when McGwire was traded to the Royals he brough his steroid dealer along with. Also Starting ace Gary Serum is threating to hold out due to low pay, 400k. He says since he is the only starter with a sub 10 era he is entitled to a pay increase. His agent will eventually be the guy that mentors scott boras. ( jason werth ) b]AL WEST[/b][/u] Seatle isnt first place, but that should be short lived. They have a 91% shot at the division, along with a league best projected recrod of 102 wins. Cali has a shot, albeit 9%, but also the only team outside the central with a shot at the wildcard, 9%. Oakland and Texas are getting better. Both have a shot at 70 wins, and maybe one of those surprise and get to .500? NL NL EASTPhilyy has a 83% shot, and are most likely to repeat. St. Louis again is predicted at 2nd place but has a shot with 12% at division and a 1 in 4 at the wild card. NEW YORK METS have a shot, 5% and predicted to be over .500. This is a team definitely on the rise and should be watched as a sleeper this year. Montreal has a 1% at the wildcard, but in that year the sim predicator picks them to go to the World Series, so maybe there is magic above the border. NL CENTRALFormer powerhouse division is not what it was once. Pitt has 61, while atl has a 27%, cincy 7 and loveable cubbies at 5. The winner could win the division sub .500, very unlikely but possible. NL WESTHouston is projected to win the division at 99% probablility. hahah just making sure your comprehending what im writing. LA versus San Fran. San fran has a slight deficit at 47 to la's 53%. San Diego still has nice weather and can california dream about the playoffs. Houston, well you have a problem...will be fighting with the royals for the #1 pick, which i think is the year Griffey comes out? there might be hope for royals or astros after all. al wildcard cleveland 29 minnesota 28 chicago 28 cali 9 milwaukee 5 seattle 1 nl wildcard san fran 26 st. louis 24 la 18 philly 11 mets 6 pittsburgh 6 atlanta 3 cubbies 3 cincy 2 montreal 1 these dont mean anything, but i thought it was funny TEAM FINANCES Attendance Revenue Profit Atlanta Braves 31022 6895514 982414 Baltimore Orioles 25838 -556934 -16964500 Boston Red Sox 33389 5629808 20566758 California Angels 33490 6243097 -10346622 Chicago Cubs 25870 642162 -9986190 Chicago White Sox 31506 5775023 3383313 Cincinnati Reds 27399 5233459 -15522277 Cleveland Indians 33012 9159391 -16150866 Detroit Tigers 31751 5895269 -5080569 Houston Astros 25264 -3709724 6211674 Kansas City Royals 28570 -3729789 -17973257 Los Angeles Dodgers 36445 7643895 -8101776 Milwaukee Brewers 36411 6826838 10754763 Minnesota Twins 34413 10990029 21027853 Montreal Expos 31145 3316304 6738710 New York Mets 32191 1889101 -21054854 New York Yankees 33220 -2219564 1876848 Oakland Athletics 25242 -2233504 -2867430 Philadelphia Phillies 29697 10810373 3662138 Pittsburgh Pirates 32799 6210626 -5562829 San Diego Padres 20856 -384586 -7007224 San Francisco Giants 32617 7542841 -8515648 Seattle Mariners 35429 10437493 -18558669 St. Louis Cardinals 34889 5461367 2090171 Texas Rangers 23365 -481125 -8892941 Toronto Blue Jays 36086 5588399 -2787614 1986 AL MVP Rickey Henderson 30 Eddie Murray 25 Leon Durham 8 Kent Hrbek 7 Alvin Davis 6 Greg Brock 4 Tom Brunansky 4 Ryne Sandberg 4 Fred McGriff 3 Andy Van Slyke 2 Andre Dawson 2 Barry Bonds 1 Bob Geren 1 Tony Armas 1 Jason Thompson 1 Glenn Wilson 1 1986 NL MVP Dale Murphy 45 Chili Davis 18 George Bell 13 Dwayne Murphy 6 Kevin McReynolds 4 Julio Franco 3 Mark Corey 3 Tim Wallach 2 Al Greene 2 Terry Steinbach 2 Sid Bream 1 Pedro Guerrero 1 1986 AL CY YOUNG Frank Viola 23 Don Robinson 16 Dave Johnson 12 Logan Easley 10 Tom Candiotti 10 La Marr Hoyt 6 Bruce Robbins 3 Frank Pastore 3 Tom Filer 3 Danny Darwin 2 Roger Clemens 2 Bill Gullickson 2 Karl Best 2 Rob Dressler 1 Greg Harris 1 Ken Schrom 1 Jeff Heathcock 1 Oil Can Boyd 1 Mark Knudson 1 1986 NL CY YOUNG Joe Price 19 Steve Bedrosian 17 Dennis Eckersley 16 Mike Morgan 13 Kip Young 9 Dave Stieb 4 Moose Haas 3 Lee Tunnell 3 Randy O'Neal 3 Brian Fisher 3 Scott Sanderson 2 John Leister 2 Scott Anderson 2 Pascual Perez 1 Greg Maddux 1 Tony Brizzolara 1 Roger Miller 1 1986 AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR Bo Jackson 31 Robby Thompson 18 George Hinshaw 15 Cory Snyder 11 Steve Finley 8 Randy Velarde 6 Jim Adduci 5 Mike Diaz 4 Norm Charlton 1 Scott Earl 1 1986 NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR Larry Ray 64 Drungo Hazewood 20 Will Clark 9 Randy O'Neal 4 Steve Ziem 1 Mike Laga 1 Brady Anderson 1 world series seattle 25 minnesota 13 philly 14 chicago 12 toronto 12 la dodgers 7 san fran 5 pittsburgh 4 cleveland 4 milwaukee 1 new york mets 1 chicago cubs 1 If i can count right... one world series is not there b/c of a possible owners lockout, players strike...Chernobyl disaster affects the world, leading to massive ash showers, and baseball is unplayable in that one sim year... The goldwater-nichols act signed october 1, deems baseball a national threat and the world series is never played that year...possibilities endless ;D
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Dec 6, 2010 15:18:31 GMT -5
im not sure how you could possibly come out to the twins making 20+ million this season....
every sim I have ran (which is a lot) has them losing atleast 23 million...?
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Post by boobiegibson4three on Dec 6, 2010 15:52:46 GMT -5
i have no clue.....thats just what the sim season shows...i used to use that as an idea for my finances but your brother was the one that told me they are really f'd up and after he told me that i realized that yes they are really crazy #'s. but i had to put that in there for you
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Post by sj on Dec 6, 2010 16:06:54 GMT -5
Don't pay any attention to the single season simulator financial predictions, they're never even within screaming distance of being right. Which says a lot about the programmer of a game which originally began as being all about financial strategy.
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Post by boobiegibson4three on Dec 6, 2010 18:27:56 GMT -5
I dont, but i included because of the white sox - twins feud, and i thought it was funny it was projecting me of making 20+ million. I know i have no way of making that much money, unless i can charge $10 beers, and $50 dollars for parking
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Post by sj on Dec 6, 2010 18:36:28 GMT -5
I dont, but i included because of the white sox - twins feud, and i thought it was funny it was projecting me of making 20+ million. I know i have no way of making that much money, unless i can charge $10 beers, and $50 dollars for parking Heh. Wait until we have to pay for our farm, medical, and scouting in 2k11 ;D
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Post by boobiegibson4three on Dec 6, 2010 18:48:41 GMT -5
this might present its own thread, but were going pay for farm, medical and scouting again? scouting is a pointless in a commish mode league, farm will get into a bidding war and will make crappy teams impossible to compete for ever and medical well we could do medical, but i know that would turn into a bidding war too....
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Post by Exposgm on Dec 7, 2010 19:09:04 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for April 26, 1986.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 0% New York: 0% Detroit: 4% Toronto: 96%
Already ahead by 3 games up on the Tigers and Red Sox, the Blue Jays hold an early lead that almost has the division locked up for them. Expect that lead to melt if Mitch Webster remains at second base, however. For the moment, Toronto is the only team with a winning record in this division, but the Tigers are also expected to finish with a winning record, not far behind the Jays. It’s a different story for the Red Sox, though: Boston has virtually no shot at a playoff participation and what was once the strongest pitching staff in the American League may cost the team to finish below .500 for the season. The same should happen in Baltimore and New York, but that’s no surprise at all.
AL Central: Chicago: 43% Cleveland: 0% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 4% Minnesota: 53%
It looks early on like this will be a race between Minnesota and Chicago, but it really is too early to count the Indians and Brewers out. The Twins and White Sox are up to great starts, but it is Chicago that leads the AL in scoring and pitching, with Minnesota not far behind. The Indians and Brewers should take part in the division race as well as in the wildcard race as well. Cleveland is getting hurt defensively by the fact that Tony Armas is playing at third and Greg Walker is playing at shortstop. The Tribe has the worst defensive average in all of TMBL and its team ERA is third worst in the AL.
AL West: California: 3% Texas: 0% Seattle: 97% Oakland: 0%
California remains ahead as we near the end of the first month, but only by half a game over the Mariners. Seattle is again the big favorite to take the AL West but the Angels could surprise or at least battle the Mariners for quite a while. They’ll also have their word to say in the Wildcard race. It is unclear at this point who will finish third between Texas and Seattle, but those two teams aren’t likely to put up a winning record yet.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 4% Philly: 82% St. Louis: 14%
It’s been a while since the Mets last had chances at the division this late into the season. New York is currently in second place, 3.5 games back of the Phillies but 2 games up on the Cardinals. The Phillies are off to the best start in the NL and owe it in great part to their pitching staff. St. Louis is having problems scoring runs and will need a much better contribution from outfielders Kirby Puckett and Dwayne Murphy. In fact, the game projects them at 74-88 right now, which would be just enough to finish above the Expos. Still, the predictions have the Cardinals lead the NL as far as the wildcard is concerned.
NL Central: Atlanta: 19% Chicago: 4% Cincinnati: 43% Pittsburgh: 34%
Once again, every NL Central team has a shot at the division, and like last year, the Reds are leading in this department early on. Only 3.5 games separate first (Atlanta) from last (Chicago). These numbers and positions will change often during the season, and the slightest trade or injury will have a chance to have a lasting impact on the race for the playoffs. The Reds acquired SS Bill Sample from the Indians, but it’s unclear at this point what role he’ll play on that team.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 67% San Diego: 2% San Francisco: 31%
The Dodgers are back on top in the predictions and holding an early 2.5 game lead over the San Diego Padres. The Padres offense is hot so far, scoring an NL-best 6 runs per game but their team ERA of 5.11 isn’t helping their cause. The Giants are off to a slow start but remain within 3.5 games after the first month. The race should once again involve LA and SF, but the wildcard could really come from any division at this point.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Chicago: 43% Minnesota: 42% Milwaukee: 9% California: 5% Cleveland: 1%
NL: St. Louis: 24% San Francisco: 21% Los Angeles: 12% Atlanta: 11% New York: 10% Cincinnati: 8% Pittsburgh: 8% Philadelphia: 6%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-36 Minnestota-18 Chicago(AL)-15 Toronto-8 Philadelphia-7 San Francisco-4 Los Angeles-4 Cincinnati-2 Milwaukee-2 Pittsburgh-2 Atlanta-1 California-1 St. Louis-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Eddie Murray (SEA)—25% NL MVP: Dale Murphy (PHI)--26%
Eddie Murray is once again the early favorite for this award, but he’s only 1 point ahead of rival Rickey Henderson. It’s a bit different in the NL, where the closest runner-up is 9 point back, and it’s George Bell of the Mets.
AL Cy Young: Frank Viola (TOR)--32% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—33%
Blue Jays lefty Frank Viola has early command of the Cy Young race in the AL with twice as many chances at it than its closest rival Don Robinson. Dodgers pitchers Steve Bedrosian and Joe Price combine for more than half the chances at the award in the National League.
AL ROY: Bo Jackson (CAL)--49% NL ROY: Drungo Hazewood (LAD)-61%
Phenomenal athlete Bo Jackson who’s the Angels DH holds an important lead for the award over two 2B, teammate Randy Velarde and Robby Thompson of the Blue Jays who are some distance back. In the NL, Drungo Hazewood is also much ahead of outfielder Larry Ray. It would be surprising if Hazewood didn’t win this award, not only because of these numbers here, but he was recently voted the Top rookie in another article.
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Post by Exposgm on Dec 10, 2010 23:34:32 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for May 9, 1986.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 0% New York: 0% Detroit: 2% Toronto: 98%
The Red Sox have played well lately and got within half a game of the Blue Jays, but Boston is still showing no chance at all for the playoffs according to the sim tool. The Tigers improved their pitching staff once again and it shows, but the team is having problems offensively as it is ranked 2nd worst in the AL in terms of runs scored per game. Toronto improved its chances at the division, and only the Tigers share some points with them. This division could get wrapped earlier than expected if Boston and Detroit don’t start playing up to their real potential.
AL Central: Chicago: 28% Cleveland: 0% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 9% Minnesota: 63%
Only 3.5 games separate first from fourth place in the AL Central, as the Twins and White Sox currently tie at the top of the division. Chicago was the only team to lose points in the predictions, dropping by 15 points but the team improved its shot at the wildcard. Milwaukee and Cleveland could still pull off a joker and change the data here, but they’ll both need to stabilize their pitching staff. There is currently a 95% chance that the wildcard spot will come from this division, but only the Royals don’t have a shot at it right now.
AL West: California: 4% Texas: 0% Seattle: 96% Oakland: 0%
The Angels remain in first place by a mere half game lead as both California and Seattle lost 7 of their last 10 games. The Mariners were without starter Bruce Robbins whose back was hurting but he will rejoin soon. Four of the five Mariners starters show an ERA above five, but the bullpen has done a better job than in California’s case so far. Texas is only 1 game away and Oakland is only 3 games back at this point, but both teams are not expected to finish the season with a winning record. If the Angels can find themselves a catcher worth starting, this race may get a lot closer as far as the predictions are concerned.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 1% Philly: 87% St. Louis: 12%
The Phillies are the only NL East team playing well lately, with 14 wins over their last 20 games. Consequently, they have continued to improve their chances at the division and they currently hold a solid 6 game lead over the New York Mets. The Cardinals continue to struggle offensively with Terry Kennedy and Dwayne Murphy both hitting for a .222 mark. St. Louis fell to 7.5 games back and is once again unable to play well early in the season, a trend that has followed them for a few seasons now. As for the Expos, they continue to drop but they surprisingly lead the NL with a .288 team batting average. C Don Crow (.390) and RF Wil Culmer (.413) are particularly on fire so far, but the same cannot be said of the pitching staff.
NL Central: Atlanta: 9% Chicago: 2% Cincinnati: 27% Pittsburgh: 62%
The Braves and Pirates are both playing well lately and are currently tied for the lead, some 4 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. But Pittsburgh was the only team to gain some points here in the predictions, gaining a solid 28 points to take a commanding lead against their rivals. Chicago lost 2 points, Atlanta lost 10 and the Reds lost another 16. The Braves lost starter Pascual Perez to yet another injury. Expect things to keep changing fast here. All these teams have a shot at the wildcard, but the highest chance belongs to the Reds at a low 8% shot.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 44% San Diego: 1% San Francisco: 55%
The Dodgers lost 7 of their last 10 games and gave hold of first place to the San Diego Padres. SD holds a tiny half game lead over LA and is 2 up on SF. The Dodgers recent woes reflect in the predictions with a 23 point drop, recuperated by the Giants who now lead the pack after a 24 point gain. San Diego’s playoffs hopes are slim, but we’ve seen teams make it to the postseason with similar chances at this time of the year. The Dodgers top two homerun hitters are batting 7th and 8th, and Randy Bush leads the entire league with 12 homeruns but has only 15 RBI to show for as he occupies the very bottom of the order.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Chicago: 55% Minnesota: 27% Milwaukee: 12% California: 4% Cleveland: 1% Seattle: 1%
NL: St. Louis: 35% Los Angeles: 21% San Francisco: 13% Cincinnati: 8% New York: 6% Atlanta: 5% Philadelphia: 5% Pittsburgh: 4% Chicago: 1% Montreal: 1% San Diego: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Minnestota-23 Seattle-21 Philadelphia-14 Toronto-13 Chicago(AL)-11 Pittsburgh-5 San Francisco-4 Los Angeles-4 St. Louis-2 Cincinnati-1 Milwaukee-1 Atlanta-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)—27% NL MVP: Dale Murphy (PHI)--35%
Rickey Henderson took over Eddie Murray in this race as he leads the American League with 10 homeruns. Murray remains not far behind, along with Alvin Davis and Tom Brunansky. Dale Murphy increased his lead in the NL, as distant runner-ups Chili Davis, George Bell and Andres Galarraga struggle to keep the pace at this point.
AL Cy Young: Tom Candiotti (CHW)--40% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—32%
There was a complete change in the AL, where Frank Viola fell way behind in third place. The new leader is Tom Candiotti of the White Sox, who has a 22 point lead on Cy Young winner Dave Johnson. The only change noticed in the NL is the emergence of runner-up Kip Young, sitting at 21% right now.
AL ROY: Bo Jackson (CAL)--35% NL ROY: Drungo Hazewood (LAD)-51%
Both leaders remain unchanged but each of them lost more than 10 points as the races became more interesting. 2B Robby Thompson of the Blue Jays remains some distance away from Jackson, but Larry Ray is seriously closing in on Hazewood. Ray may very well be the only bright point in Houston this season.
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Dec 10, 2010 23:42:16 GMT -5
Candiotti 6-0 2.10 ERA and 59 Ks.
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Post by Exposgm on Dec 14, 2010 17:47:58 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for May 22, 1986.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 0% New York: 0% Detroit: 4% Toronto: 96%
This race continues to involve only the Tigers and Blue Jays, with the Jays holding an intense lead here in the predictions. Toronto is up by 4 games on the Tigers who re-claimed 2nd place from the Red Sox. Boston lost 9 out of 10 and sits 6.5 games back. The team was without sluggers Willie Aikens and Mike Diaz for a few games, but it’s the pitching staff troubles that are hurting the most. Randy Johnson (1-4, 7.53) is having all sorts of problems and has failed to reach the 6th inning in 7 of his 9 starts this season. The Yankees are also struggling on the mound, as only John Tudor (7-2, 2.95) is pitching well in their rotation. Baltimore lost 8 games in a row, falling some 8.5 games back. The Orioles bench has been particularly awful, with batting marks of .194, .182, .180 and .158 from 4 of their 5 backups.
AL Central: Chicago: 40% Cleveland: 0% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 4% Minnesota: 56%
With 7 straight wins and 14 over their last 20 games, the Twins are playing extremely well lately, but then so are the White Sox and Brewers. Minnesota’s lead over Chicago is only one full game and the Brewers are merely 3.5 games back. Chicago is the only team to improve its chances at the division over the last sim, gaining 12 points as the Brewers and Twins lost some of their chances. Milwaukee lost reliever Bob Owchinko to a shoulder injury for the next 3 weeks. Cleveland is playing around .500, but is beginning to fall a bit behind, sitting currently some 7 games back.
AL West: California: 4% Texas: 0% Seattle: 96% Oakland: 0%
Absolutely nothing moved here in the predictions. California is yet again ahead in the division, but by only 1 game on the Mariners and Rangers and only 3.5 games on the Athletics. Every team in the AL West has a losing record and no one has been playing well as of late. According to the sim tool, Seattle should still win 97 games or so. There are a lot of struggling hitters in that lineup which will need to shake things up for the team to get into second gear: Ryne Sandberg (.241), Barry Bonds (.207), Eddie Murray (.254), George Hinshaw (.219) and Devon White (.235) are all sleepers waiting to explode. The Rangers were not expected to be this close, but if the excellent play of outfielders Gary Roenicke (.294, 13 HR, 36 RBI) and Darryl Strawberry (.286, 11 HR, 37 RBI) continue, Texas could surprise many. They’ll need support from the rotation, though. Oakland is struggling to put up runs on the scoreboard, managing only 3.56 per game, worst in TMBL. The heart of the order especially has been awful: Rob Deer (.164), Danny Tartabull (.212, 2 HR, 11 RBI) and Craig Biggio (.200, 2 HR, 13 RBI) are absolutely not contributing to the offense with such dismal numbers.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 2% Philly: 83% St. Louis: 15%
The Cardinals won 6 of their last 10 games to get within 6.5 games of the Phillies, but that’s still only good for third place. St. Louis nevertheless gained a few points for the division and continues to lead the NL for the wildcard spot as far as the predictions are concerned. Five games separate the Mets from the Phillies at this point. Philadelphia remains pretty much in control and are enjoying the best lead over second place in TMBL. It could remain so until the very end.
NL Central: Atlanta: 14% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 33% Pittsburgh: 53%
The team of the hour in the National League has to be the Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of 7 consecutive games and 14 of their last 20. The team has taken over the lead of the NL Central by 2 games on the Braves, 4 on the Reds and 6.5 on the Cubs. Still, the 100 sims resulted in a 9 point loss for the Pirates in the division race. They remain a full 20 points ahead of the Reds, but the Braves also have a 1 in 7 chance at this point. As for the Cubs, they have lost their final points for the division and remain a very long shot for the wildcard. Both the Braves and Reds lost their starting catcher to injuries. As for the Cubs, SS Dale Berra fractured his foot and will miss the next two weeks.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 53% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 47%
San Francisco and Los Angeles are currently tied atop the NL West, strong of a 1.5 game lead over the Padres. But the Dodgers re-gained control of the lead here in the predictions, although the lead they have over the Giants is rather thin. C Bill Schroeder and SP Mike Morgan have missed time with injuries for LA, while the Giants were without RF Jim Eisenreich. The Padres lost 7 of their last 10 games, dropping to third in the division.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Chicago: 49% Minnesota: 41% Milwaukee: 8% California: 1% Toronto: 1%
NL: St. Louis: 23% Cincinnati: 16% Los Angeles: 12% Pittsburgh: 12% San Francisco: 12% Philadelphia: 8% New York: 7% Atlanta: 6% Chicago: 2% San Diego: 2%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-22 Minnestota-19 Philadelphia-15 Chicago(AL)-14 Toronto-12 San Francisco-6 Los Angeles-5 Pittsburgh-4 St. Louis-2 Atlanta-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)—19% NL MVP: Andres Galarraga (CIN)—23%
Things got much closer in both leagues in the race for the MVP award. Rickey Henderson lost a bunch of points and now has Kent Hrbek, Tom Brunansky and Andre Dawson on his heels. Andres Galarraga has taken over the lead in the National League, but Kevin McReynolds, George Bell and Dale Murphy are all within 8 points of him at this point.
AL Cy Young: Tom Candiotti (CHW)--42% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—30%
Almost nothing moved for the Cy Young awards. The leaders and runner-ups have remained identical and the percentages barely moved.
AL ROY: Bo Jackson (CAL)--32% NL ROY: Drungo Hazewood (LAD)-73%
The leaders remained the same for the Rookie of the Year as well, but only five points separate the AL leader from the guy who ranks in third place. Drungo Hazewood improved his chances even more and now has almost a 3 in 4 shot at becoming the NL Rookie of the Year. There is still a lot of baseball to be played, though.
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Post by Exposgm on Dec 19, 2010 2:33:58 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for June 3, 1986.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 0% New York: 0% Detroit: 0% Toronto: 100%
The world-renowned sim tool has declared the AL East race to be over. The Toronto Blue Jays, sitting in front of the Tigers by a mere 4 games, have the thing wrapped up, blessed with a 100% shot at the division title as decided by Nostramogul. That’s too bad, as the Tigers were finally playing better and scoring some runs. But an injury to leadoff hitter Chet Lemon may have sour results on the Tigers, who’ll be without him for a month. The Orioles won 5 games in a row and have climbed all the way up to third place, 8.5 games back of the Jays, but remain headed for last place according to the predictions. Boston continues to dive, however, with 15 losses in 20 games, and could very well finish below the Orioles if the pitching staff continues to challenge that of the KC Royals. As for the Yankees, it’s another tough year, but fans are excited with Sap Randall’s season so far. The Bronx Bombers first baseman already has 14 homeruns, a surprising outburst in his case after he belted only 9 last year.
AL Central: Chicago: 51% Cleveland: 0% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 2% Minnesota: 47%
The White Sox and Twins are both playing extremely well lately and seem to have pulled away from the others in this tough AL Central division. With 16 wins over their last 20 games, Chicago owns the best record in TMBL but the Twins aren’t far behind. Minnesota’s 14 wins over their last 20 games have them only 2 games back of the red hot White Sox. Milwaukee has fallen to 7.5 games back, while Cleveland is already 9 games out at this point. The Indians don’t seem to be in contention this year as the sim tool does not even consider them for the wildcard spot. Milwaukee still has a shot at it, but with the two teams ahead in this division, it will be very tough to steal the wildcard from one of them.
AL West: California: 2% Texas: 0% Seattle: 98% Oakland: 0%
The Mariners are finally on top of the division, although barely as the Rangers and Angels both sit only one game back. It may seem as if three teams have a serious shot at the division here, but the prediction machine sees things differently. Seattle should end up running away with the title, but we’ve seen this sim tool show similar things before and the final results were quite different. Talent-wise, though, it’s hard to see how the Mariners could fail to take the division, unless they’re struck with injuries or if their key players retire to try soccer instead.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 98% St. Louis: 2%
A 15 point gain by the Phillies have the division almost locked up for them, and the situation sort of confirms this when you look at their 9 game lead over the second-place Mets. Lonnie Smith’s knee injury won’t even be a factor. The Mets chances at the division melted, but not as much as those of the Cardinals. What are they doing in third place anyway? Montreal has won 5 games in a row and is closing in on St. Louis, but third place isn’t really within range in their case.
NL Central: Atlanta: 22% Chicago: 2% Cincinnati: 12% Pittsburgh: 64%
Once again, some important changes occurred in the NL Central. Pittsburgh remains the favorite and only team to play well lately, which has helped them improve their lead over the Braves to 2.5 games. Chicago is back in the predictions with a tiny shot at the division. The only team to lose points over the last sim was the Reds, who lost an important 21 points and dropped to last place, some 8.5 games back of the Pirates. Another fall like this and they’ll be completely out of it.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 66% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 34%
Both leaders remain tied after we reached the draft, but the Dodgers gained all 13 points that the Giants lost here in the predictions. Amazingly enough, the Dodgers are able to maintain themselves with the Giants despite scoring less than four runs per game, but they count on the league’s best pitching staff. San Francisco’s pitchers aren’t performing as well as last season, but they have been getting much better run support. San Diego is only 4 games back, but slowly falling out of pace with the other two and will lock down third place with the promise of a better future starting soon. It’s not sure the same can be said of the Houston Astros, though.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Minnesota: 49% Chicago: 45% Milwaukee: 6%
NL: San Francisco: 34% St. Louis: 23% Los Angeles: 19% Cincinnati: 7% Atlanta: 6% Pittsburgh: 4% Philadelphia: 2% New York: 2% Chicago: 2% San Diego: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-21 Toronto-20 Chicago(AL)-18 Los Angeles-13 Minnestota-11 Philadelphia-10 San Francisco-3 Pittsburgh-1 St. Louis-1 Atlanta-1 Cincinnati-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)—21% NL MVP: Leon Durham (LAD)—20%
Both races are very tight with a new leader taking over in the NL. Henderson is only a point above Andre Dawson and two above Alvin Davis in the American League race. Recently acquired by the Dodgers, Leon Durham has taken a slim lead in the NL, but four players remain within 8 points or less of him.
AL Cy Young: Frank Viola (TOR)--50% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—34%
We have a whole new leader in the AL as Frank Viola takes over with an impression 50% chance at the Cy Young. Former leader Tom Candiotti now trails him by quite a margin, as he and Dave Johnson are the only other pitchers rated above 10%. Bedrosian continues to lead in the NL and improved his chances a bit, but so did Kip Young who’s right behind him. Joe Price is the only other starter to have a somewhat decent shot at the award at this point.
AL ROY: Randy Velarde (CAL)--42% NL ROY: Drungo Hazewood (LAD)-66%
Randy Velarde has taken over teammate Bo Jackson for the AL Rookie of the Year, but Jackson remains in the race as well as Robby Thompson of the Jays. Hazewood lost some points in the NL, but has now exactly twice as many chances as runner-up Larry Ray.
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Post by Exposgm on Dec 21, 2010 20:12:32 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for June 18, 1986.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 0% New York: 0% Detroit: 1% Toronto: 99%
The Blue Jays, winners of 13 of their last 20 games, have improved their lead atop the AL East to a full 6 games over the Detroit Tigers. Nevertheless, the 100% shot declared a sim ago by the sim tool has been disrupted and the Tigers have been given back their 1% shot at the division. Tigers 1B Alvin Davis leads the team in almost pretty offensive category, but would need better support from some of the players around him. The Orioles continued to play well and remain in third place at this point. Boston has given up on the season, trading star catcher Darrell Porter, starter Randy Johnson and shopping other veterans around. They should finish fourth or fifth, depending on how the lowly Yankees decide to play from now on.
AL Central: Chicago: 66% Cleveland: 0% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 0% Minnesota: 34%
The White Sox seem unstoppable this season and have added 15 wins over their last 20 games. The Twins are keeping up as best as they can and sit only 3 games back, but suffered a bit of a loss in the predictions as Chicago picked up 15 points to hold a 2 in 3 chance at the division. The Brewers are also playing well but the sim tool barely gives them any chance at the wildcard and none at the division. The Tribe’s fall continues, as the team lost 13 in 20 and sit 15 games out of first, a rare feat.
AL West: California: 0% Texas: 0% Seattle: 100% Oakland: 0%
The last two weeks have been painful for any AL West team not named Mariners. Seattle won 16 of its last 20 games, hottest team in the AL over that period, as the rest of the division played sub-par baseball and fell back some distance. The Angels now find themselves 5 games back, and the Rangers who were so close not long ago are now 9.5 games out after dropping 13 in 20. They’re now getting closer to the Athletics, who sit in last some 14 games back at this point.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 97% St. Louis: 3%
Some injuries are slowing down the Phillies a bit, and after the Cardinals recent 4 game winning streak, the gap has been reduced to 8.5 games as St. Louis reclaimed second place from the Mets. The late start by the red birds is costing them now for the wildcard berth. The Mets still have a shot at that wildcard spot, picking up George Brett from the Brewers in the process, but will probably lead the NL in cash lost at the end of the season. The Expos continue to hit for a high average as a team, but score few runs and have not lost cleanup hitter Mickey Brantley for the next two weeks.
NL Central: Atlanta: 16% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 6% Pittsburgh: 78%
The Pirates were the only NL Central team to improve its chances at the division. Pittsburgh now almost has a 4 in 5 shot at finishing first this season. Atlanta is only 3 games back, and the race will definitely take place between those two teams. The Braves recent sequence has improved their chances at the wildcard by quite a margin. The Reds and Cubs keep falling and although the sim tool still gives some chances to the Reds Stockings, the team seems a bit far at 12 games out to pull off a surprise.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 56% San Diego: 2% San Francisco: 42%
No one is playing rather well lately in the NL West. San Francisco has taken a slight half game lead over the Dodgers, while the Padres remain well within range some 3.5 games back. Giants 1B Daryl Sconiers will miss two weeks with a sprained finger. The Dodgers lost their ace Joe Price to a wrist fracture and the tall lefty will miss four weeks for them. LA will receive crucial help offensively after they acquired C Darrell Porter from Boston. This should make things even more interesting the rest of the way.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Minnesota: 66% Chicago: 32% Milwaukee: 1% Detroit: 1%
NL: San Francisco: 22% Atlanta: 21% Los Angeles: 18% St. Louis: 15% Cincinnati: 12% Pittsburgh: 7% New York: 4% Philadelphia: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Chicago(AL)-22 Seattle-17 Minnestota-15 Toronto-14 Philadelphia-12 Los Angeles-9 Pittsburgh-6 San Francisco-2 Atlanta-1 Cincinnati-1
**Missing one World Series, it’s been requested by Santa Claus, don’t know who the lucky kid is, though...
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)—60% NL MVP: Kevin McReynolds (STL)—29%
Mr. Henderson has tripled his chances in the span of only one sim, batting .421 with 5 HR and 11 RBI over his last 10 games. Only Andre Dawson has chances in the double-digits but is far behind at 16%. Kevin McReynolds took over the lead in the NL, where things are much closer. Five other players have chances ranging from 10 to 14%.
AL Cy Young: Frank Viola (TOR)--48% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—44%
Things almost didn’t move in the AL. Frank Viola has more than twice the chances of the closest runner-up. In the NL, Bedrosian added 10 points to his chances, but runner-ups Kip Young and John Leister also boosted their shot at the award.
AL ROY: Randy Velarde (CAL)--47% NL ROY: Drungo Hazewood (LAD)-87%
The only change of importance in the AL is the appearance of Cory Snyder, replacing Robby Thompson in third place in this race. Bo Jackson and Snyder are the only other players in the American League with a shot higher than 10%. Drungo Hazewood almost locked it up already, and Larry Ray has the remaining chances for the award in the NL.
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Dec 21, 2010 20:25:48 GMT -5
Even the World Series favorite! didnt expect that...
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Post by Exposgm on Jan 4, 2011 17:34:08 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for July 3, 1986.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 0% New York: 0% Detroit: 4% Toronto: 96%
The gap between the Blue Jays and Tigers has tightened to a mere 2.5 games over the last sim. Detroit was the only team in the AL East to play well lately, but also the only one in range of the leaders. Toronto had to play without 1B Jose Barrios, out with a back injury. The Tigers rotation displays four of five pitchers with a sub-four ERA, but more offensive support would be needed from the bottom of the batting order. Baltimore lost 5 in a row and 16 of its last 20 contests but remains in third place as the Yankees and Red Sox weren’t playing any better. The awful season continues in Boston and the team could very well finish last after ending the previous season in first place.
AL Central: Chicago: 50% Cleveland: 0% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 0% Minnesota: 50%
Sixteen points were exchanged between the White Sox and Twins, which now have them tied at 50% each here in the predictions. Both teams continue to play extremely well and only half a game separate them in the Standings. Chicago lost starter Tom Hausman to a broken hand and he will miss another week. The Brewers won their last six games and 13 of their last 20 and aren’t out of this race yet, but injuries have struck them hard this last sim. Milwaukee lost CF Willie Wilson to a back injury, 2B Wally Backman to an ankle injury, and starters Eric Wilkins and Dave Stewart will respectively miss one and three weeks. The Indians continue to struggle and hover some 16.5 games back. All hope is certainly lost in their case for the current season. Kansas City is even further, but that comes as no surprise however.
AL West: California: 0% Texas: 0% Seattle: 100% Oakland: 0%
The Mariners continue to play well, winning 13 of their last 20 games. Combined with the Angels poor play lately, the lead over second place has been increased to 7.5 games. Texas has caught up with California and could pull off a second place finish, but it’s rather unlikely at this point. As for Oakland, some young players make their future look brighter, but it’s not happening for RF Rob Deer. The 25 year old slugger leads the team in homeruns (12) and RBI (40), but his .171 average isn’t helping much.
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 98% St. Louis: 2%
The Phillies engines are fully functional as the team won 4 in a row and 15 games over their last 20 contests. The Cardinals are also playing as well lately, but were unable to catch up with the leaders. St. Louis still improved its chances at the wildcard and has taken on some good momentum at this point of the season. 2B Rafael Ramirez suffered a dislocated shoulder and will miss a couple of weeks. He was the Cardinals leadoff hitter and doing an excellent job at it, batting .353, tied for second-best in the NL. The Mets are 13 games back and won’t be a factor again this season. Montreal is further behind and had to do without LF Mickey Brantley. The team has only a 1% shot at finishing higher than fourth.
NL Central: Atlanta: 1% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 2% Pittsburgh: 97%
The Pirates are not only on fire, but are also the only NL Central team to play well lately. This had a major impact on the predictions as well as on the Standings. Pittsburgh now holds an important 10 game lead over second place, which reflected on the predictions as the team gained 19 points to almost lock the division entirely. Atlanta remains in second place, but lost 15 points in the predictions. The Reds and especially the Cubs are having problems putting up wins and should finish well behind the rest of the division. The Cubs don’t even score four runs per game, an astonishing fact considering some of the names their lineup holds.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 86% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 14%
The Giants took a dive in the predictions, dropping by 28 points after losing 12 of their last 20 games. In the meantime, the Dodgers are playing rather well and have improved their lead atop the NL West to 3.5 games. Already without Joe Price, LA lost two more pitchers to injuries but both will be back within a few days. It’s the same story in San Francisco where Scott Sanderson and Greg Harris have missed time after suffering some ailments. With 14 wins over their last 20 games, the Padres have fallen 8.5 games out and lost the little points they had for the playoffs. They remain an almost certain lock for third place, in front of the Astros.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Minnesota: 49% Chicago: 48% Milwaukee: 2% Detroit: 1%
NL: St. Louis: 46% San Francisco: 19% Atlanta: 12% Los Angeles: 7% Cincinnati: 7% New York: 5% Chicago: 2% Philadelphia: 1% Pittsburgh: 1%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Seattle-23 Minnestota-20 Philadelphia-17 Chicago(AL)-16 Los Angeles-9 Toronto-7 Pittsburgh-4 San Francisco-3 St.Louis-1
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)—53% NL MVP: Kevin McReynolds (STL)—26%
Rickey Henderson lost a few points but keeps his huge lead in the AL over new runner-up Andy Van Slyke who’s far behind at only 10%, the only other AL player in the double-digits. Kevin McReynolds is in the lead once again, but George Bell got within only two points of him. Two other players, Andres Galarraga and Leon Durham have chances above 10%.
AL Cy Young: Frank Viola (TOR)--32% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—48%
Frank Viola remains in the lead in the AL despite losing 16 points. He still has twice as many chances as the closest runner-up. Tom Candiotti, Don Robinson, La Marr Hoyt and Dave Johnson all have between 16 and 12% shot at the award. Things got extremely closer in the National League, where Kip Young dramatically increased his chances and got within 4 points of Bedrosian. The race may involve only these two pitchers the rest of the way.
AL ROY: Randy Velarde (CAL)--49% NL ROY: Drungo Hazewood (LAD)-88%
There were very little changes in both races, as both leaders added a handful of points. Bo Jackson and Robby Thompson are the only AL runner-ups with chances left above 10%, while Larry Ray remains the only serious rival in the NL. However, a third player made his apparition this week, as Jeff Fischer was awarded a 1% shot at the award.
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Post by sj on Jan 5, 2011 12:17:56 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for July 3, 1986. As for Oakland, some young players make their future look brighter, but it’s not happening for RF Rob Deer. The 25 year old slugger leads the team in homeruns (12) and RBI (40), but his .171 average isn’t helping much. Or, looked at from a different perspective, one might say that although Deer is only hitting .171 he still leads the Athletics in HRs and RBIs. This says less about Deer's skills (lack of skills) than it does about the rest of this organization which has seen some of the worst draft picks and trades in TMBL history, but leading the team in RBIs is still leading the team in RBIs whether he's batting .171 or .371.
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Post by Exposgm on Jan 7, 2011 22:33:15 GMT -5
Here are the predictions for July 18, 1986.
AL East: Baltimore: 0% Boston: 0% New York: 0% Detroit: 10% Toronto: 90%
Detroit continues to play well unlike the Blue Jays and that has resulted in the gap diminishing to only one game. Toronto is still ahead but shows only 7 wins over its last 20 games. SS Odie Davis and RF Glenn Wilson both missed time with minor injuries and will be back in a couple of days. The Tigers have raised their chances at the division all the way to a 1 in 10 chance, but with such a small margin and a lot of time left, nothing is decided yet. The rest of the division continues to free fall, as the Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees respectively won only 6, 7 and 8 of their last 20 games. The only change in the bottom pack was that the Red Sox retrieved fourth place, leaving the very bottom to the New York Yankees.
AL Central: Chicago: 17% Cleveland: 0% Kansas City: 0% Milwaukee: 1% Minnesota: 82%
There was a complete turnaround over the last sim in the AL Central, as the White Sox picked a bad moment to have a setback. Chicago lost 11 of its last 20 games, while the Twins picked up the tempo in fashion, winning 17 of 20 over the same span. Minnesota now sits atop the division, strong of a 5 game lead over the White Sox and 10 over the Brewers. Unsurprisingly, this reflected in the predictions, as the Twins gained 32 points while the White Sox suffered a similar loss in points. The Brewers were playing rather well but against the red-hot Twins, they lost some ground over the leaders but are still within reach of the wildcard spot. The Indians recent play has them back at .500 but at 19 games back their playoffs hopes are long gone. Kansas City stands at 29 wins for the year and lost starter Ben Callahan to a sprained finger for two weeks.
AL West: California: 0% Texas: 0% Seattle: 100% Oakland: 0%
Nothing changed in the AL West. Seattle won 13 of its last 20 but the others have been playing well too. The 9.5 game lead may be all the Mariners need to cruise to the division title. The Rangers remain within range of second place, but lost CF Rick Monday for a week. Back to the Mariners, some hitters are struggling as far as the batting average is concerned, most notably Barry Bonds (.224), Andres Mora (.211) and Devon White (.233).
NL East: Montreal: 0% New York: 0% Philly: 99% St. Louis: 1%
The top two teams in this division continue to play very well lately, meaning that the Cardinals weren’t able to get closer to the Philadelphia Phillies. The leaders lost 3B Julio Franco for two weeks. St. Louis also lost its starting 3B as Dave Baker suffered a neck injury and will also miss the next two weeks. The Mets continue to be very active, adding LF Kirk Gibson to their lineup, giving the Mets some chances at the wildcard. New York currently sits 7.5 games back from the wildcard leader, but there is still enough time left to overcome such a gap.
NL Central: Atlanta: 1% Chicago: 0% Cincinnati: 1% Pittsburgh: 98%
The Pirates have won 13 of their last 20 games, improving their lead over second place to 11 games. Pittsburgh has the best record in the National League and should cruise to an easy divisional win. The Braves chances at the wildcard have melted after losing 6 of their last 10 games. The Reds have won 12 in 20 but remain 6 games below .500 and are looking to unload several of their players.
NL West: Houston: 0% Los Angeles: 76% San Diego: 0% San Francisco: 24%
The Giants took 10 points back from the Dodgers after winning 7 straight games and getting within half a game of the Dodgers. San Francisco also regained the wildcard lead in the Standings as well as here in the predictions. It looks to be a wildcard race between the Cards and the Giants, but other teams may not be quite dead yet.
Chances at the Wildcard:
AL: Chicago: 80% Minnesota: 17% Milwaukee: 3%
NL: San Francisco: 43% St. Louis: 33% Los Angeles: 14% New York: 5% Cincinnati: 3% Atlanta: 2%
Add your chance at the division to your chance at the wildcard, and you have your chance to make the playoffs this season.
World Series Titles: Minnestota-25 Chicago(AL)-17 Los Angeles-15 Seattle-14 Philadelphia-11 Toronto-10 Pittsburgh-5 San Francisco-2
**: 1 World Series went missing, if you have seen it or have information on where it may be, please contact your local FBI office.
Awards:
AL MVP: Rickey Henderson (CAL)—69% NL MVP: Andres Galarraga (CIN)—32%
Angels outfielder Rickey Henderson improved his lead and now has almost 7 in 10 chances to earn the AL MVP title. The NL’s former leader Kevin McReynolds took a dive, falling to fifth place after losing close to 20 points. Andres Galarraga has taken over the lead and can see Leon Durham not far when looking over his shoulder. George Bell and Dale Murphy are the only other two NL players with chances above 10%.
AL Cy Young: La Marr Hoyt (MIN)--38% NL Cy Young: Steve Bedrosian (LAD)—60%
Frank Viola hasn’t win a game since June 7 and that has cost him first place for the AL Cy Young award. La Marr Hoyt has 8 straight wins and has taken over the lead for the award, and he holds a 22 point lead on Don Robinson and even more on Dave Johnson and Frank Viola. Steve Bedrosian has improved his lead in the NL but it’s too early to count Kip Young out of the race yet.
AL ROY: Mike Diak (BOS)--36% NL ROY: Drungo Hazewood (LAD)-93%
A new rookie has taken over the race in the American League as Mike Diaz of the Red Sox jumped just ahead of former leader Randy Velarde. Robby Thompson and Bo Jackson have double-digits chances as well but they’re a bit back of the two leaders. Drungo Hazewood continued to improve his lead and should win the award easily.
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Post by Chi-Town Sox on Jan 8, 2011 0:08:36 GMT -5
**: 1 World Series went missing, if you have seen it or have information on where it may be, please contact your local FBI office. I believe it went to the south side of Chicago because it felt most at home there
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